2024-3-18 BSG Newsletter – Betting System Monthly Results Update
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +£1,468 in the last month after costs
2.1 System Changes Betaminic Draws: Deeper analysis and Trigger Strategy Changes
2.2 System Changes BSG Draws: +2k traded volume rule dropped
2.3 System Changes IPT data feed works well with the draw bots (+38 extra points this month)
2.4 System Changes 300-point bank now recommended for Betaminic Draw set
2.5 System Changes 0-0 Correct Score bot dropped for Betaminic Draw set
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
System 1: Betaminic Draw Strategies
System 2: The BSG Draw System
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
4 Automated Betting Bots – Email me if you want a bot set.
5.1 Tips for BFBM Why are some bets still not settled?
5.2 Tips for BFBM IPT InPlayTrading 21 Test bots for £50
5.3 Tips for BFBM Cid Carlos’s 600+ bot catalogue for £99
5.4 Tips for BFBM How accurate is Simulation Mode?
Read the newsletter here on my website or download the PDF here .
Best Regards,
Tom
1 Betting System results +£1,468 in the last month after costs
+£1,468 net profit in the last month
Betaminic Draw Bot System: -£1,109 net loss (+£989 gross loss) in the last month. BM Draw System starting 3k nominal bank total P/L now +£938 (+£578 net) in 4 months.
BSG Draw Bot System: +£875 net profit (+£975 gross profit) in the last month. BSG Draw System starting 3k nominal bank total P/L now +£4,983 (+£4,083 net) in 9 months.
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9”: +£979 net profit (+£1,051 gross profit) in the last month. 2024 LD9 starting 5k nominal bank now +£231 (+£97 net) in 2 months.
Contend UD: -£56 net loss (-£39 gross loss) in the last month. 2024 LD9 starting 5k nominal bank now -£601 (-£637 net)
The Betaminic Draw System had a losing month of -54 points that was made even worse by my newly added 0-0 correct score bot that added -44 points to that loss with a -98 points loss. With my £10 stakes that meant a loss of -£989, and with costs added a net loss of -£1,109. After 4 months it has made +76 points profit in 4 months, about +19 points per month on average, but if we exclude my 0-0 bot, then it would be +30 points per month. This was its biggest month of drawdown so far of -210 points meaning this also needs a 300 point bank. Drawdown can be reduced by stopping the 0-0 correct score bot and removing trigger strategies with high historical maximum drawdowns such as the nul x a – b by nirnouta50 (TW version) AL WR33% strategy which has a maxDD of -97 all by itself. My aim for the Betaminic Draw System is to have a low drawdown, lower volatility draw system than the BSG draw system. So I will be reviewing and removing some high DD draw strategies from it.
Win Rate Tacking. The BM Draw system had a win rate of just 24% from the last 192 trigger tips, so I expect an above 33% win rate is due to help return that win rate percentage to the 12 year average of 33%.
The BSG Draw System had a good month with +97 points profit. I also added a 0-0 correct score bot to this set which had just a -1.3 points loss. After 9 months it has made +498 points profit, about +55 points per month. Test data revealed that the +2k traded volume did not in fact improve results. So I have reverted the bsgDrawSystem trigger tips to the original version. While the +2k traded volume rule did slightly reduce volatility, its core bet win rate was worse at times and after 1,000 bets showed the same win rate with half the volume of bets. The result being that we missed out on profits without enough of a decrease in drawdown that would have allowed us to decrease the nominal bank size. The IPT inplay data feed also improved profits by allowing more inplay bets to be made and easily covered the £20 monthly fee if you get the 1 year subscription for £239. If you do subscribe to IPT through my link, I will send you my other current IPT test bots. (Too early to say if they really work or not.)
Win Rate Tacking. The BSG draw system is in a short-term winning streak and a medium-term losing streak. The core trend has had a win rate of
36% from the last 415 bets
31% from the last 1,195 bets
33% from the last 2,874 bets
33% from the last 9,615 bets
So I expect the above 33% win rate to continue to help bring that 31% medium-term win rate back up to the 33% long term trend.
My 2024 LD9 low drawdown set had a good month with a +10.5 points profit, with 100 stakes that meant a +£1k increase. After 2 months is has mad +2.3 points profit, about +1.5 points per month.
Contend UD also had a -3.9 points loss for this month, but it is early days with just 72 bets placed. This is a strategy I think is due a large winning streak soon, which is why I am following it with its own separate bank. It is not a low drawdown strategy, so it is separate from the other Betaminic LD9 strategies.
Overall, my various betting systems are up over +£6,000 even after costs in the last 9 months.
I would like to note that Betaminic’s own BetaminicLdsys Low Drawdown Set of 4 strategies is still doing very well. So much so that I am going to add it as an extra set. This means that I may double bet on some picks, but I want to add another low drawdown set.
This account currently posts tips from these betting strategies:
Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04)
Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields
My own low drawdown set of 9 follows 2 of those:
Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields
And also variants of the other 2:
OVER 2. -> Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04)
2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues -> Colossus 01 Home Dog
But their choices seem to have found a level of performance my choices have not, so I am also going to copy them in a new set.
Screenshots
BSG Draw System (Running since June 28th 2023)
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9” (Running since Jan 18th 2024)
Betaminic Contend UD (Running since Jan 18th 2024)
Betaminic Draw Bot System
Note: There are 2 versions; the Betamin Builder version and the TippingSports version. I recommend the TippingSports versions for simplicity, volatility and cost. I show both versions’ results here so that we can track the individual performance of strategies that make up the set, and then we can judge when to add or remove trigger strategies.
TippingSports Version
(5 strategies running since November 17th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024)
7 bots x 1 TippingSports account = 7 bots
Betamin Builder Version
(5 strategies running since October 18th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024)
6 bots x 10 strategies = 60 bots (These bot sets do not have the 0-0 Corrct Score bot.)
We can see that the Betamin Builder (BB) version used 400 picks in the last 30 days while the TippingSports (TS) version sent 258 trigger tips. So the TS version avoided 142 wasted picks that were either duplicates or non-Betfair markets. The TS versions only lost -54 points to the BB versions -290 points. The BB set must have made many duplicat bets on the same losing picks which led to x3 worse results than the TS version.
2.1 System Changes – Betaminic Draws: Deeper analysis and Trigger Strategy Changes
With these draw strategies, the important figure to look at is the B2 core trend win rate and bets placed. Many of these bot sets have yet to clear over 100 trigger bets and so it is far too early to consider removing them based on recent results. But we can consider removing some if we are re-evaluaing the whole set in the aim to have low drawdown stratgies. But first I want to talk a little bit more about how we should view drawdown data.
(The following is taken from my blog https://bettingsystemsguide.com/draw-system-drawdowns-how-should-we-calculate-maximum-drawdowns/)
I had an interesting question by email the other day and I want to share my answer here, too.
I found a post of yours on Reddit saying the Betaminic draw system has suffered a 115 point drawdown possibly due to a 0-0 correct score bot that had been added. Is that something that’s always existed in the Betaminic draw system or is it something that’s recently been added and can be removed again to bring that maximum drawdown back down to 60?
That’s a good question.
Short answer,
I think -220 is a more realistic maximum drawdown for the Betaminic Draw system, meaning it needs a 300 point bank, but I think it will have fewer big drops than the BSG draw system. Removing the 0-0 bot will not return the drawdown to -60. But it would reduce the possible drawdowns, since that bot is betting an extra point each time and it has a much lower predicted win rate of 12%. Following fewer trigger draw strategies might reduce the volatility, but I think that would be a false economy, because the lower volatility is just coming from a lower bet volume. The same drawdown would eventually be reached. It would just take longer And I think that drawdown will be similar across all betting strategies with a 33% win rate.
Long answer,
I think there are 4 ways to judge drawdowns.
- Looking at actual historical results.
- Looking at all available historical data.
- Looking at the Estimated Losing Sequence for that win rate.
- Considering the law of numbers in regard to bet volume.
- Looking at actual historical results.
I have been using my Betaminic Draw System for 4 months. At the beginning, there were just 5 Betaminic draw strategies providing trigger tips for my bot set. At that time there was little volatility. After 1 month, I added another strategy to make it 6. There was still little volatility. After another month I added 3 more to make it 9 strategies. The maximum drawdown was still -60. In the last month I added 1 more to make it 10 strategies. Then in March there has been a losing run of -180 points. Only about -20 points of that was the new 0-0 correct score bot which had done very well in testing and I still think is a good addition.
So just going by the actual results of my 6 bot set in the past 4 months I had a -180 point drawdown from a 27% win rate from the last 200 bets. This is well below the usual 35% win rate of the bots and the aggregated average 33% win rate of the 12 years of historical results of the 10 strategies. I am very sure we will see a swing back in results to push that average backup to 33%. So the next 200 bets will probably have a win rate above 33%. But my -60 and -180 point drawdown figures came from the actual results of the 6 bot set.
- Looking at all available historical data.
If I look at the past data from 12 years of the draw strategies I am following, using the Betaminic aggregator tool, it gives a combined maximum drawdown of -168 points over the past 12 years. But these figures include double/triple betting on overlapping tips. At the moment I am not double/triple betting on overlapping tips. So this figure cannot be used directly to calculate the drawdown, but it is an indication. Also, this drawdown is only for the core B2 trend. The other in-play bots and Correct Score bots will be different. So for the BetaminicDraw system this information is not that useful.
- Looking at the Estimated Losing Sequence for that win rate.
I believe this ELS is a better way to judge drawdowns if a system has a consistent win rate.
https://www.thestakingmachine.com/els/
The core trend according to the Betaminic aggregator has a win rate of 33%.
Putting that number into the ELS calculator shows us the expected longest losing runs. And the maximum drawdown is likely to be a combination of 2-3 losing runs in close succession. So for the 800 tips the BetaminicDraw system has had in 4 months, we would expect an ELS of around 17 for the A1 and B2 bots.
Also, I place 3 extra bets in-play that have win rates of around 24% which give an ELS of around 25.
And the correct score bot has a win rate of around 12% which gives an ELS of 36 after 100 bets.
If I put them together we get a combined ELS of 145. (109 without the correct score bot.)
So the -120 drawdown looks very standard and expected in this context.
Furthermore, from experience with other strategies, I would expect 2-3 times that losing run to be the eventual maximum drawdown. So 220 or even 330 might be the eventual maximum drawdown of the system looking at those figures. And this leads on to the next point. (After I wrote this post, the drawdown did reach -210, but 44 points of that was the 0-0 correct score bot)
- Considering the law of numbers in regards to bet volume.
Looking at the Estimated Losing Sequence (ELS) figures again, we can see that the ELS gets higher the more bets we make. This is the natural law of numbers. The more bets we place, the more chance of an unlucky or negative variance run coming. Also the larger those drawdowns and variances will be. So the longer we follow a betting system, the larger its drawdowns will get, and over the long, long term it will break its previous largest drawdown records.
This means we can never truly say “-180 is the maximum drawdown” of a system. We can only say that in the case of 33% and 24% win rate trends that “-180 is the actual maximum drawdown from the last 800 bets. and -109 is the expected longest losing run of the 5 bots after 1000 bets. And -135 is the expected losing run after 5,000 bets.” But such losing runs could happen close to each other, so we should plan on a drawdown of the ELS x2 for the number of bets we plan to follow the system for.
My BSG draw system has had over 9,000 bets in its 16 month history and has reached drawdowns of -220. This is well under its ELS x2 figure of 292 (146 x2). So while my BSG draw system appears to have a bigger volatility than the BetaminicDraw system, one significant factor is that my BSG draw system has had +9,000 trigger bets compared to the BetaminicDraw system which has had only 800 trigger bets. So in very simple terms the BSG draw system has a higher drawdown because it has placed more bets. We could even see the BSG draw system as an indicator of the possible drawdowns the BetaminicDraw system could face over the next 9,000 trigger bets, which for the BetaminicDraw system would take over 2 years to reach. So I would say that a 300 point bank would be the right choice for both systems.
So what do we do with this information?
We use this for bank and stake planning.
Since we are planning to follow these betting systems for the long term, and the longer we bet, the more chance of a big losing run coming, this makes me want to use a staking method of fixed level stakes plus a fixed bank over a fixed time period.
Yes, that’s right, boring level stakes. Despite researching and writing “The Staking Plans Book”, I have gone back to level stakes for my big data, high volume betting systems. Progressive staking plans like percentage staking will just end up betting more on losers and less on winners. And absolutely stay away from any recovery staking plans. They just don’t work long term.
So looking at my own calculations I have done just here. I think having a 300 point bank for the BetaminicDraw system and also for the BSG draw system are correct if we are betting fixed level stakes. With both systems making over 50-70 points per month on average, then after 6 months they should have made enough to cover their banks being bankrupted in the case of an unusually large drawdown coming, which WILL come if we follow it for years and years on end, which I plan to. So by using level stakes, then we protect ourselves from the maximum drawdown run (ELS x2 or x3) that may come once every thousand bets, depending on our bet numbers, since the system will have made enough profit to restart itself.
So I recommend betting 10 GBP level stakes with a 3,000 bank for BetaminicDraw and a separate 3,000 bank for the BSG draws.
And when I run these banks, I risk 100% of them. I go until the bank is gone (due to extreme volatility) or until the trend win rate no longer makes positive ROI.
In my mind, I am planning to run them for 1 year, and then review things. So I can always plan for how long I am going to risk how much for what expected profit.
When can we increase stakes with fixed level stakes?
We should only increase stakes during a short term losing run. When the long term win rate is 33% and the short term win rate is around 20% or lower, we KNOW there will be an above average winning run coming soon. Then we can increase stakes knowing that we are “buying the dip” and results will improve. Once we increase stakes, some people might choose to reduce stakes back to their original levels once the short term win returns to the trend line of 33%. This is okay, too.
But each time you increase stakes, you must set aside a new bank for that stake increase. And we must accept that this bank could all be lost.
Are Betaminic strategies less volatile?
I don’t have hard data on this, but my Betfair market triggered bots tend to have more volatility than my Betaminic database triggered bots. My Betfair triggered bots reach their stop limits earlier than Betaminic triggered bots do. I think this is because Betfair is the equivalent of the aggregated open market with no actual “opening odds”, but Betaminic database odds come from Pinnacle opening odds which are based on a consistent market model and only based on league games which will be much more predictable and consistent than all the various cups, friendlies, youth and women’s competitions on Betfair. So if you wanted to choose one of the draw system based on lower volatility, then I would recommend the Betaminic one first.
Should we cut the 0-0 Correct Score Bot?
If you can increase the bank to ride out volatility, and your focus is profit, then I would keep the Correct Score bot. It will have positive ROI in the long term, but its low win rate will lead to more volatility than without it.
If you cannot increase the bank to ride out volatility, and your focus is trying to keep the drawdown as low as possible, then removing the Correct Score bot is better.
How can we reduce the drawdown on the BetaminicDraw set?
One way of thinking would be to remove the strategies that have high historical drawdowns such as the nul x a – b by nirnouta50 (TW version) AL WR33% strategy which has a maxDD of -91 all by itself.
This seems very high when compared to Missing Draws – Top Leagues which has a MDD of -42
But when we look closer, we see they both have win rates of similar levels,33%-34%, but nul has 18,940 bets in its data set while Missing Draws only has 3,151. When we put those numbers into the ESL calculator we get.
The Missing Draws strategy has an ELS of about 19 for 3,000 bets and nul has an ELS of about 25 for 30,000 bets. So the Missing Draws current MDD is just over ELS x2 and the nul current MDD is just over ELS x3. So why does nul have over x3 ELS but Missing Draws has over x2 ELS with similar win rates? It think the reasons is the ROI. Missing Draws has an ROI of 9.4% versus nul’s 3.9%. This means Missing Draws has more yield buffer to go through before negative volatility enters negative profits. So selecting higher ROI strategies can reduce drawdowns.
So here we can consider two theories.
- Drawdowns are direcly related to their win rate, ROI and bet number. Different strategies with similar win rates and ROI will have smiilar drawdown patterns. The more bets a strategy has in its data set, the larger the maximum drawdowns will be. Previous maximum drawdown levels being broken does not indicate a broken strategy, only negative ROI at win rates that previously made positive ROI is the indicator that a strategy no longer works.
- Drawdowns are conncted to the character of each strategy. Even if 2 strategies have similar win rates, the maximum drawdown and volatility will be different due to the selection methods being different. So we can only rely on the historical drawdowns to have an idea of what the drawdown for htat individual strategy will be and plan our banks on that. If the drawdown goes over the historical MDD by 150%, then the strategy can be considered broken.
Which theory do you agree with?
I started by believing the second theory, but more recently I have moved to the first theory. I feel the win rate and ROI are the important things to consider.
So, I am going review my choices for the Betaminic Draw set based on this. Let’s have a look at the All Time Betaminic stats and my bot set results.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 33% win rate after 375 bets, exactly the same as the long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is 2.9%, which is less than the Pinnacle 3.94%. That could be a sign that the selection method is losing its edge.
The pre-match bets are in profit, but the in-play bets are putting it into a loss.
The -91 MDD is x3.72 of the 25 ELS for this bet volume.
These statistics make me want to remove this strategy from the set.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 32% win rate after 334 bets, 1% lower than the long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is 4.05%, which is higher than the Pinnacle 3.34% which was achieved with a 33% win rate! That could be a sign that the selection method is doing fine and in fact is better on Betfair than Pinnacle.
The pre-match bets are in profit, but the in-play bets are dragging results down.
The -65.52 MDD is x2.71 of the 24 ELS for this bet volume.
These statistics make me want to keep this strategy in the set.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 29% win rate after 154 bets, 3% lower than the long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is -3.56%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 6% which was achieved with a 32% win rate. The current B2 win rate is below the long term trend win rate so it is not possible to know if the edge is being eroded.
The pre-match bets are in profit thanks to the A1 bot, but the in-play bets are not doing much.
The -73.93 MDD is x3.39 of the 22 ELS for this bet volume.
I think this strategy is due a positive run since its short term win rate is 26% after 53 bets.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 32% win rate after 75 bets, 5% lower than the 37% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is -6.2%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 13% which was achieved with a 37% win rate. The current B2 win rate is below the long term trend win rate so it is not possible to know if the edge is being eroded.
All the bots are in the red.
The -48.88 MDD is x2.79 of the 18 ELS for this bet volume.
I think this strategy is due a positive run since its short term win rate is 32% after 60 bets.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 34% win rate after 56 bets, 1% lower than the 35% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is 7.14%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 12.6% which was achieved with a 35% win rate. The current B2 win rate is below the long term trend win rate so it is not possible to know if the edge is being eroded.
The pre-match bets provide most of the profit at the moment.
The -48.24 MDD is x2.54 of the 19 ELS for this bet volume.
These statistics make me want to keep this strategy in the set. The MDD is near x2.5 ELS and is in profit despite a win rate under the long term win rate.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 32% win rate after 85 bets, 2% higher than the 30% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is 17.57%, which is higher than the Pinnacle 5.31% which was achieved with a 30% win rate. The current B2 win rate is higher the long term trend win rate so it is not possible to know if the edge is being eroded.
The pre-match bets provide most of the profit at the moment.
The -55.07 MDD is x2.36 of the 23 ELS for this bet volume.
These statistics make me want to keep this strategy in the set. The MDD is under x2.5 ELS.
Since the short term win rate is +9% higher than the long term win rate, feel a losing run is due to return to the long term trend line.
For this reason I want to pause this strategy until its B2 and T5 bots return to that 30% win rate.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 31% win rate after 164 bets, 3% lower than the 34% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is -2.65%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 11.51% which was achieved with a 34% win rate. The current B2 win rate is lower the long term trend win rate so it is hard to know if the edge is being eroded.
Most of the bots are in the red, but the in-play current odds bot actually made profit despite the negative run.
The -48.68 MDD is x2.26 of the 22 ELS for this bet volume.
I think this strategy is due a winning run to get back to its 34% win rate.
I like its MDD being under x2.5 its ELS.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 27% win rate after 56 bets, 7% lower than the 34% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is -18.21%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 9.43% which was achieved with a 34% win rate. The current B2 win rate is lower the long term trend win rate so it is hard to know if the edge is being eroded.
All the bots are in the red with the in-play bots doing worse than the pre-match bots.
The -42.18 MDD is x2.18 of the 19 ELS for this bet volume.
I think this strategy is strongly due a winning run to return to its 34% win rate. The low MDD/ELS ratio of x2.18 also gives me confidence.
9 Mid Table Team (Updated 2023-12-5) AL
(This is a duplicated and edited version of “Mid Table Team” https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/595258 . I edited the original strategy to include all 111 leagues in order to increase bet volume. If you want to use this one, you will have to duplicate and edit the strategy in your private strategies area of the Betamin Builder.) |
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 34% win rate after 100 bets, 2% higher than the 32% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is 9.56%, which is higher than the Pinnacle 3.9% which was achieved with a 32% win rate. The current B2 win rate is higher the long term trend win rate so it is hard to know if the edge is being eroded.
All the bots are in the green with the in-play bots having better ROI.
The –90.44 MDD is x3.84 of the 24 ELS for this bet volume.
The high MDD/ELS ratio of x3.84 worries me. The short term win rate is slightly above its long term trend, so it is due a losing run.
For this reason I want to pause this strategy until its B2 and T5 bots return to that 32% win rate.
The B2 pre-match current odds bets have a 30% win rate after 54 bets, 4% lower than the 34% long term win rate.
The B2 bot ROI is -2.31%, which is lower than the Pinnacle 10.16% which was achieved with a 34% win rate. The current B2 win rate is lower than the long term trend win rate so it is hard to know if the edge is being eroded.
All the bots are in the red.
The –88.58 MDD is x4.11 of the 22 ELS for this bet volume.
The high MDD/ELS ratio of x4.11 worries me.
From looking this data, I will:
- Pause strategies whose short term win rate is significantly higher than their long term win rate.
Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL
- Stop using strategies whose MDD/ELS ratio is above 3.5. I feel this is an indication of a strategy with a lot of volatility that will only get worse the longer we follow it.
HDQ Unders Draws (5Y PI Version)
Mid Table Team (Updated 2023-12-5) AL
nul x a – b by nirnouta50 (TW version) AL WR33%
- Add draw strategies with better drawdowns, ROIs and MDD/ELS ratios.
HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1272189
The –33.02 MDD is x1.83 of the 18 ELS for this bet volume.
This strategy’s settings were shared with me by another long term veteran Betaminic user.
draw-robman-S1 https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/266265
The –34.47 MDD is x1.83 of the 19 ELS for this bet volume.
This strategy has been highlighted a few times by Betaminic in their emails as a long term performer.
Pro7 Bore Draw v2 https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/7940
The –32.44 MDD is x1.69 of the 19 ELS for this bet volume.
2.2 System Changes – BSG Draws: +2k traded volume rule dropped
BSG Draws: +2k traded volume rule dropped
As mentioned before, test data revealed that the +2k traded volume did not in fact improve results. So I have reverted the bsgDrawSystem trigger tips to the original version. While the +2k traded volume rule did slightly reduce volatility, its core bet win rate was worse at times and after 1,000 bets showed the same win rate with half the volume of bets. The result being that we missed out on profits without enough of a decrease in drawdown that would have allowed us to decrease the nominal bank size.
From the screenshot above, you can see how the +2k rule halves the number of trigger tips we get, but the win rate stays the same at 35% in last 537 and 1,126 bets for both versions. The trigger bet generator still has a tight 103% back overround rule and also a 4-tick back/lay ratio requirement and I feel these 2 rules will be enough to avoid invalid markets.
2.3 System Changes – IPT data feed works well with the draw bots (+38 extra points this month)
IPT data feed
The IPT inplay data feed also improved profits by allowing more inplay bets to be made and easily covered the £20 monthly fee.
In the screenshots below, I duplicated the original test bots and edited them to have original and +2k volume rules and IPT and non-IPT data feeds.
In both cases, the IPT feed led to higher profits.
For the original set having the IPT data feed has led to +38 points extra in one month. For the +2k volume rule having IPT led to +31 points extra in one month. Even on 1 GBP stakes that covers the 20 GBP monthly cost. For 10 GBP stakes that is an extra 380 GBP.
If you are using either the BSG draw bots or the Betaminic Draw bots, then I recommend you get the Inplaytrading data feed for Bf Bot Manager 1 year subscription for £239. If you do subscribe to IPT through my link, I will send you my other current IPT test bots. (Too early to say if they really work or not.)
2.4 System Changes – 300-point bank recommended for Betaminic Draw set
As explained above, it is better to plan on needing a 300-point bank for both the BSG and the Betaminic Draw sets since they are both draw systems with similar win rates. The BSG drawdowns map out the potential Betaminic Draw drawdowns in advance since it has a high volume of bets.
2.5 System Changes – 0-0 Correct Score bot dropped for Betaminic Draw set
My BSG Draw System is my high volume, high profit, high volatility system. I want my Betaminic Draw System to have lower drawdowns and volatility, so I am going to cut the 0-0 Correct Score bot from that set.
You can make your own decision based on your betting style.
If you can increase the bank to ride out volatility, and your focus is profit, then I would keep the Correct Score bot. It will have positive ROI in the long term, but its low win rate will lead to more volatility than without it.
If you cannot increase the bank to ride out volatility, and your focus is trying to keep the drawdown as low as possible, then removing the Correct Score bot is better.
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
I am now following 2 draw systems. BSG and Betaminic, and also following a low drawdown system of 9 Betaminic strategies and 1 separate profit focussed Betaminic strategy. I am using the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software to automate betting on these systems. I am also using IPT In Play Trading data to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores.
For the daw sets, see my website for more details on how to set them up:
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/betting-systems/
Email me if you want to use any of my bot sets.
System 1: Betaminic Draw Strategies
1 | draw-robman-S1 | |
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 | |
10 | [PAUSED] Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL |
Betaminic Draw System: 300-point bank
Must use Bf Bot Manager to get best results.
Follow the Betaminic Draw System via 1) the Betamin Builder from Betaminic.com
2) the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports
Bet 1: Back the draw at opposite odds at 25 minutes before kick-off.
Bet 2: Back the draw at current odds close to kick off.
Bet 3: Back the draw in-play at current odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 4: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 5: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds +4 ticks if a goal goes in.
Cost to follow through TippingSports: £120 per month fixed with a 12-month subscription. (Best value)
Cost to follow directly through Betamin Builder: All 9 strategies: I have paid between £80-£185 per month so far. The aggregator suggests 487 per month on average which would be £248 GBP per month with the 2,000-pick package. £418 GBP per month with the 100 pick packages.
Drawdown: -60 points monthly average / -220 points maximum so far.
Exit point: When the core trend of a strategy does not have positive ROI with its long-term win rate from a recent data set of 100 bets or more. In this case strategies that stop working will be removed from the set.
Maximum Variance: -220 points / +140 points so far
Target Profit: 30 points per month
System 2: The BSG Draw System
1 | bsgDrawSystem |
BSG Draw System: 300-point bank
Must use Bf Bot Manager to get best results.
Follow the BSG Draw System from my TippingSports account https://www.tippingsports.com/en/profile/8801
Bet 1: Back the draw at opposite odds at 25 minutes before kick-off.
Bet 2: Back the draw at current odds close to kick off.
Bet 3: Back the draw in-play at current odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 4: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 5: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds +4 ticks if a goal goes in.
Cost: Free for the first month and then £100 per month.
Drawdown: -100 points monthly average / -230 points maximum so far.
Maximum Variance: -230 points / +160 points so far
Exit point: When the core trend does not have positive ROI with a 33%-win rate from a data set of 100 bets or more.
Target Profit: 55 points per month
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
1 | 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | |
2 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
3 | BANKER?? | |
4 | e2 | |
5 | OVER 2. | |
6 | Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | |
7 | TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites | |
8 | UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJ | |
9 | x 4 + |
2024 LD9 System: 50-point bank
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 100 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -10 points monthly average so far / 12-year -32.33 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 114 Betaminic picks per month average costs £58 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £98 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
1 | Contend UD |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 3.6 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 36 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -8 points monthly average so far / 12-year -34.12 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 27 Betaminic picks per month average costs £14 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £23 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
1 | Colossus 01 Home Dog | |
2 | BANKER??? | |
3 | Contend UD | |
4 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 120 points after 12 months)
Drawdown: -6 points monthly average so far / 12-year -25 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost to follow through TippingSports: £42 per month fixed with a 12-month subscription.
Cost to follow directly through Betamin Builder: All 4 strategies between £30-£50 per month. The aggregator suggests 60 picks per month on average which would be £30 GBP per month with the 2,000-pick package. £51 GBP per month with the 100 pick packages.
4 Automated Betting Bots – My Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
If you need one of my bot sets. Email me. “bettingsystemsguide @ gmail.com”
5.1 Tips for BFBM – Why are some bets still not settled?
If you see lots of unsettled bets that remain “Matched” long after the event has finished, then this is a sign that:
- Betfair went down and Betfair data could not be sent out. (Occasionally happens)
- Your internet connection was interrupted, so the final score results could not be received. (Sometimes happens)
- Your BFBM software was overloaded with bots and markets, so it was unable to process all the data in time and became unstable. (Can happen if running more than 100 bots and monitoring 500+ markets.)
5.2 Tips for BFBM – IPT InPlayTrading bots
Since I have the IPT bots, I have also been trying to create my own automated versions of the IPT strategies that they describe in their members section.
I have manage to create bot sets that automate their Strategy B “Goalwatch” and Strategy G “Three lays”. Neither of my bot sets are in overall profit yet, but I feel they may need adjustment to their selection filters to make them work better.
For Goalwatch, people are supposed to find matches with goals likely themselves, but IPT also put out emails each weekend with a few matches pre-selected as likely to have goals. Their selections have a high hit rate and a separate bot set focussed on just those tips with lighter selection filters may work.
I followed their suggested settings very strictly, but I think that changing them to make use of their pressure indexes may be another way to use the method.
The bot set looks to take advantage of matches where goals are expected and chances have already been had early in the game.
Three lays is another strategy that wants to trade in matches where goals are expected. My interpretation of their rules have not found many selections so far.
Again, I think I will have to change the selection filters to add in my own ideas of how to find matches with goals due.
If you purchase the IPT 1 year subscription through my affiliate link for £239, then I will share these non-working IPT bot sets as a base to fiddle with yourself. I will also share 10 IPT test strategies that are making profit on low stakes so far. I am also still pretty new to using IPT and am testing various bots. So I cannot say for sure if these bots will work long term or not.
All the Test Set 4 bots are 1 GBP level stakes with no recovery or other fancy staking plans.
The Test Set 5 bot is 10 GBP level stakes.
If you are not my IPT referral, you can purchase these bots in their current, very rough early stages for 50 GBP. Email me at “bettingsystemsguide @ gmail.com”
5.3 Tips for BFBM – Cid Carlos’s 600+ bot catalogue for £99
If you want more inspiration for BFBM bots and IPT BFBM bots, a veteran user Cid Marcos sells his back-catalogue of about 620 bots for £99.
His site is in Portuguese, so you can also get the set through me in GBP for £99.
You can:
1. Make a PayPal payment of £99 to tomkiyosu@gmail.com
2. Email bettingsystemsguide@gmail.com to let me know you want access to his catalogue of 620 bots. Let me know the email you want to gain access with.
3. I will send you the current bot set as a.gz file. 620 bots is a lot! So I will also send you my edited versions of his best bots that I think a worth focusing on first. I will also give your email address access to Cid Carlos’s Google Drive where he has all his bots stored. This means that you can re-download the bots anytime. And as Cid Carlos adds any new bots, you will also be able to download those. So you can check back every few months to see if there is something new. New bots for 2024 will be in the 2024 folder an so on.
Most of them are example bots of what can be done with the BFBM and you still need to add your own selection filters, but some of them are good inspiration for bots that may work if you put in the time and effort. And a few of them seem to work just as they are. But I have not thoroughly tested them yet.
Please note that the site and the bot names are in Portuguese. I have barely scratched the surface of his bots. But he deserves credit for being the king of BFBM on YouTube. I bow to his experience and knowledge. He wrote the Portuguese translation of the BF Bot Manager software manual. He has been using the software and making YouTube videos about it a lot longer than I have. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCn0z41lYyQlxkfgHizwsPiQ
5.4 Tips for BFBM – How accurate is Simulation Mode?
(This is taken from a post on my site, so you may have already read it: https://bettingsystemsguide.com/bf-bot-manager-simulation-mode-how-accurate-is-it .)
Simulation Mode in Bf Bot Manager
Simulation mode, according to BFBM, is only to be used to check if the bot functions and triggers as planned. They say it is not meant to be used in any way as a method to research or find if a strategy makes profit. I think they say that to cover themselves against complaints. I always use simulation mode as an important step in the research process. We just need to understand how it works.
Key points:
Simulation mode uses DELAYED data. The data is delayed 30-120 seconds. So the odds data is delayed but the inplay stats data is not.
So, if we bet at 2:30pm, we actually bet on the 2:28pm odds.
This means that pre-match simulation mode bets are going to be fairly accurate since odds don’t vary that much in a 2 minute window.
Pre-match 2:30pm and 2:28pm odds don’t change so much.
But in-play, If we bet on a 0-0 score at 30m in the game, then we are betting at 30m game time on 28m odds. This means draw odds might actually be a little lower at 2:30pm than at 2:28pm. If we are backing the draw when it is 1-0, then the odds will be drifting upward, so the 2:30pm odds would be a little higher than the 2:28pm odds. Not much, but a little bit. So in-play simulation bots still have meaning but are not as accurate.
One problem might be that if a goal goes in at 2:30pm, and the bot bets in simulation mode, we might be betting on the 2:28pm odds when the match was still 0-0. We can counter this by adding a “delay bet by 150 seconds after market status change” rule. Depending on the bet the bot is making, there might be ways to mitigate the data delay.
Simulation mode matches ALL of the stake, even if there isn’t enough liquidity there in real life. So for smaller markets, it may be inaccurate, but for larger markets it is probably okay. It is still useful for establishing positive ROI at level stakes for a core trend though. The liquidity issue just means we don’t know how scalable a bot is. If you wanted to us a simulation bot but avoid low liquidity bets then you can add rules to let it bet only when a certain amount of money is available on the 1st price, or even a combination of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd amounts of money by using the Selection Condition “Only if available amount >/<” rule.
Simulation mode only matches unmatched bets placed at higher odds IF the odds get to that level. In the old BFBM it matched bets instantly, even if the odds had not reached that level yet, but in the current BFBM it is better, and it only matches unmatched bets at higher odds when the market actually gets to those odds. So with my bots placing bets at the opposite odds +4 ticks, it will wait until the back odds actually reach that level in the market and then change the simulated unmatched bet to matched. But if we have an unmatched bet, and the odds reach the required level at 2:29pm, but a goal goes in at 2:30pm, the simulation bot will cancel that bet, because it has the 2:28pm odds, and thinks a goal has been scored, thus cancelling the unmatched bet because of a suspended market. With hedging and trade out bets, the results can become even more inaccurate since there is more interdependency on odds, timing and livescores.
If we bear these 3 things in mind, then we can still get useful information from simulated bets, even though BFBM themselves discourage it.
Once you have a strategy that works in simulation mode, the next step is to try it in real mode with SMALL stakes.
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicDraw on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my BetaminicDraw bot set)
6 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicLdsys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
7 Betaminic’s tipping account BETAMINIC1 on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
8 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
9 My BSG Draw System account TomW on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 Smartbet.io automated betting software for PS3838/Pinnacle (+50% first deposit bonus with “TomW” code)
4 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
5 Betting Agents: : AsianConnect and BetInAsia Access a PS3838 account, online sportsbook & exchange aggregator, and 3% commission white-label version of Betfair with no Premium Charge via a betting agent. AsianConnect (via VPN for UK/AUS residents) or BetInAsia. See my site for a list of which site accepts/restricts which country. Only USA, Aruba, Singapore, and The Philippines are restricted by both. So one of them will probably work for you.
6 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
7 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
8 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Special Offers (Deposit Bonuses, Cashback, etc.)
1 25% Deposit bonus up to 500 EUR for new AsianConnect signups through this link
2 50% Deposit bonus up to 25 EUR for Smartbet.io, when you make your FIRST deposit, tell them “I would like the TomW 50% deposit bonus.” in the deposit chat tab.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.