2024-12-18 BSG Newsletter – Betting System Monthly Results Update
Dear all,
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +26% increase on the bank in the last month
2 Detailed results and screenshots
3 Betaminic 30-Day Full Access Subscriptions (Nearly infinite picks)
4 New Snapshot and 16 Low Volatility Strategies worth looking at on Betaminic
5 Whitaker Staking: LC vs NLC
Recommendations
If you are not following Betaminic strategies already, then I really recommend getting into them.
#1 Follow the BSG Draw System. It is free for the first month.
#2 Follow the BSG16 lay strategy. It has had some great results and works well with the lay version of Whitaker Staking In this case we are trying to join the bookies, not beat them.
#3 Follow the 9 Low Drawdown strategies I follow. They seem like a solid system and can help balance out the system when BSG draws has a bad month.
#4 Follow Contend UD. Love it or hate it, this strategy has good results if followed long term, despite its volatility.
2, 3 & 4 can be run easily with manual betting since they don’t have a high volume of bets.
If you have Betfair, then you can automate them on Betfair. Otherwise, you can bet manually on any sportsbook.
System Details
If you want more details on the systems or want to start, then please look at my startup guide PDF.
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/start-now/
Snapshot of all Public Betaminic Strategies
Easily filter and sort through the public strategies with this Excel file
Bf Bot Manager Bot Set
If you are using my bot sets and want an updated set including the BSG Draw System changes, please download it from this link
Whitaker NLC set for a 1k bank https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pzExhFXcykf5uigg-rFzLsmZwercOO7z/view?usp=sharing
Whitaker LC set for a 1k bank https://drive.google.com/file/d/15z7Cdkfk77tW9nooOGSYp_akd2jc99wR/view?usp=sharing
Latest Updates
You can get the latest information, as questions and interact with other uses in this Reddit community.
Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
Best Regards,
Tom
1 Betting System results +26% increase on the bank in the last month
+26% increase on the bank in the last month excluding costs.
+£347 increase on a £2,000 starting bank including £176 costs from November 18th to December 18th. (+£523 gross profit)
System performance
This month there was a long losing run from some systems and the bank went down to -50% at one point, but they then recovered back to profit. On level stakes, the 4 systems made a -18.6 unit loss, but Whitaker LC staking made +15% and Whitaker NLC staking made +37% on their starting banks in this month alone. This month I had my 2k bank split into 1k in a Whitaker LC staking set and 1k in a Whitaker NLC staking set. My recent staking research has been suggesting that while Whitaker LC performs better when we have consistently winning or badly losing strategies, Whitaker NLC performs better with volatile runs that end up slightly in profit or loss. This month the LC bot set had its losing run first, and winning run second, so it ended up betting smaller stakes on the winning bets since its bank was smaller at that point. The NLC set bet the same stake levels all month, so it ended up with better results. It felt like a tough month, so I am pleased that it managed to come out with profit at the end.
The Betaminic BSG16 Lay the Draw strategy was the best performing (+40%) while BSG draws (+8%) and BM LowDD9 (+2%) also helped out. BM ContendUD (-13%) did worst this month.
How did each system do from November 18th to December 18th 2024?
The above results are from the Whitaker NLC staking set.
Things have been moving fast for me on several different fronts and I have not been able to lay out my results in an easier way in Excel to see level stakes and Whitaker stakes results better yet, but it Is on my list of things to do.
Planning for the next month
There has been a big change at Betaminic with it becoming a subscription model with nearly infinite picks (£82 for each 30 days). This reduces my monthly costs a lot, and also makes calculating monthly costs much easier. Now it is down to a flat £112 including my VPS and BFBM software. With this change, I will be looking at adding in more strategies, but that will take time to research properly. For now, I will carry on as I am with my main sets.
I will keep my two sets format. One LC and one NLC.
The Whitaker NLC set will keep running with stakes based on its £1,000 starting bank, despite having made £370 profit.
The Whitaker LC set will keep running with stakes based on its current bank level which is now £1,151. It also had a starting bank of £1,000.
Recommendations
If you are not following Betaminic strategies already, then I really recommend getting into them.
#1 Follow the BSG Draw System. It is free for the first month.
#2 Follow the BSG16 lay strategy. It has had some great results and works well with the lay version of Whitaker Staking In this case we are trying to join the bookies, not beat them.
#3 Follow the 9 Low Drawdown strategies I follow. They seem like a solid system and can help balance out the system when BSG draws has a bad month.
#4 Follow Contend UD. Love it or hate it, this strategy has good results if followed long term, despite its volatility.
2, 3 & 4 can be run easily with manual betting since they don’t have a high volume of bets.
If you have Betfair, then you can automate them on Betfair. Otherwise, you can bet manually on any sportsbook.
2 Detailed Results
Bot Set Screenshots: Whitaker Staking Set
Single System Screenshots of Tracker Sets
BSG Draw System
This Whitaker LC set is from Oct 1st to Dec 18th and shows a +69% increase on a 1k bank.
This Whitaker NLC set is from Oct 1st to Dec 18th and shows a +71% increase on a 1k bank.
This Whitaker LC set is from Nov 1st to Dec 18th and shows a +12% increase on a 1k bank.
This Whitaker LC set is from Dec 2nd to Dec 18th and shows a +2.8% increase on a 1k bank.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
The original test bots for the BSG1 (bsgZeroZero) trend show a losing month on level stakes overall, but the long term trend is still positive for the bots we follow.
The pre-match draw bet core trend A2 bot has an ROI of 1.47% after 13,643 bets.
The 0-0 FT A6 bot still has an 8.32% ROI after 3,332 bets which is fantastic and backs up that this trend is working and is expressed strongest in the unpopular 0-0 FT bet.
The 0-0 HT A7.1 bot shows 3.46% ROI after 1,1876 bets, but the higher 39% win rate is what keeps me following this one.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These are test bots from the BSG2 trend (bsg2ZeroZero). This set showed a loss on level stakes, too.
The 0-0 FT A6 bot still has a good 14% ROI after 2,679 bets.
The long term test results are strong and whitaker staking is making the best use of them.
Low Drawdown Set of 9
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 50 unit bank (5k bank) from Oct 1st, Nov 1st and Dec 2nd respectively.
You can see the +3.2, +1.5 and -13 unit profits and loss.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These Whitaker LC Staking bots bet with a 5k bank from Oct 1st, Nov 1st and Dec 2nd respectively.
You can see the +9.76% profit and -6.9%, -37% bank losses.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 50 unit bank (5k bank) from Jan 18th 2024.
You can see the results of each strategy from the set and also the now removed Away weak favourite strategy at the bottom.
And of course, having removed the Away weak favourite strategy from my official set, it promptly went on a +2.7 unit winning month.
Contend UD
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 80 unit bank (8k bank) from Oct 1st, Nov 1st and Dec 2nd respectively.
You can see the +6.6, +16.8 and +33 unit profits.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
These Whitaker LC Staking bots bet with a 8k bank from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively. You can see the -2%, +11% and +38% bank profits and loss. |
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
This £100 Level Stakes bot bets with a 80 unit bank (8k bank) from Jan 18th 2024.
It has made +37 units profit so far this year. Very nice but I would not like to rely on just one strategy. It is better to follow multiple systems to spread risk.
BSG16 lay strategy
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
The original bots I was following the lay system with have hit 452 bets.
The Whitaker NLC bot has 25.5% ROI.
The Whitaker LC bot has 35.5% ROI.
But is important to note that this is with a 76% win rate which is higher than the Betaminic strategy trend rate of 73%. So we have been “lucky” so far with this strategy which explains the high ROI.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
I have also been trying other Betaminic triggered lay bots, but there is nothing to report yet.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
My autobots made with similar filters to their Betaminic strategy triggered counterparts continue to make massive losses. This is one of the reasons I keep using the Betaminic database. The picks generated form their Pinnacle opening odds selection consistently outperform my Betfair only autobots.
User’s Mixed Set Trackers
When possible, I try to track the results of some of my followers in their first weeks to see if we get similar results.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
This user’s set started on Nov 7th with a £400 bank using all 4 systems with Whitaker LC staking.
+92% so far and looking good.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
This user’s set started on Nov 17th with a £1,000 bank using 2 of the systems with Whitaker LC staking.
+10% so far, but still early days.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
This user’s set started on Oct 17th with a £2,000 bank using all 4 of the systems but using level stakes with each bot getting a ELSx4-1000 level stakes bank, except for the lay bot which uses Whitaker NLC staking.
+£3,218 so far and looking good.
Nov 18th 2024
Dec 18th 2024
This user’s set started on Oct 27th with a £1,000 bank using some of the systems with Whitaker NLC staking. (Only some of the LD9 strategies were included)
+£257 so far.
I wanted to share these bot sets to show that you do not have to do exactly the same thing as me. You can just choose the systems that you like the look of and also the staking plans that make sense to you. Each of the users above have made their own decisions on how to use the data available. I helped them set it up on the BFBM and then track it to compare notes if I am following similar strategies. I bought a new simulation desktop PC with 8 GB of RAM instead of 4 GB and also an i5 core instead of an i3 core and I have noticed a big improvement in my BFBM’s ability to handle 200 bots run in simulation mode which has enabled me to track more users’ sets until we are happy they are working fine. If you also want help setting up bots on your BFBM, please let me know at BettingSystemsGuide@gmail.com .
3 Betaminic 30-Day Full Access Subscriptions
Betaminic finally made the change that a lot of us had wanted; a subscription system where we don’t need to worry about calculating pick costs, missed picks, duplicate picks, wasted picks, etc. Now you get full access for 30 days for £82 with a max limit of 1,000 picks per subscription, and any unused picks get rolled over to the next 30-day subscription period. This changes the situation a lot. Previously, each pick cost money so every bet had to be carefully planned. Following more strategies meant higher costs, needing bigger banks. But now, I just need to clear £82 to cover pick costs for a month. That means you can run quite a few systems on a 1k or 2k bank, maybe even a 500 bank.
So, the next big question is…what do we do this?
I would first of all say, don’t get over excited and immediately follow every strategy thinking it will make you rich overnight. We still have the important issues of bank management, maximum drawdowns and short term volatility to consider.
If you follow lots of underdog and draw strategies with £10 level unit stakes, then those strategies are likely to have MDDs of 30-50. If you get a few of those coming at the same time, then you could see a -100 drawdown, meaning a -£1000 loss that destroys your bank.
Low odds strategies are likely to have shorter losing runs and less volatility. Following lots of favourite and over/under 2.5 goals strategies with odds under 2.00 is much less likely to hit that -100 unit loss as fast as draw and underdog strategies will.
At the very least, I would strongly recommend using Whitaker NLC Staking with the strategies you follow. It is a kind of smart level stakes. It bets more on low odds and less on high odds. This will help reduce the naturally higher drawdowns that higher odds strategies have. Then it won’t matter so much if you follow lots of draw or underdog strategies. The staking system will handle it by adjusting stakes to levels where statistically expected losing streaks won’t destroy a 100 point bank.
So which strategies should we follow if we have almost no limits?
If you followed all the top 30 Betaminic rated strategies, it would still only use about 500 picks in a month. So the 1000 pick limit is not really a limit for normal users. Your approach may differ a lot if you are a manual or automated better.
Manual Bettors
If you are betting manually, then you may be worried that you won’t be able to place all the bets in a month, but another way to look at it is; you can follow lots of strategies so that your get the maximum number of value betting opportunities in your email or pending picks area each day that you are available to place bets. You can maximize your betting opportunities by following multiple strategies, but you don’t have to bet on every pick that gets sent out. The picks in a strategy or not linked. If there is a losing run, you are not due a winning run to balance things out. The matches are all separate events. Thinking that they are connected is the Gambler’s Fallacy. Achieving similar results to the Betaminic strategy histories is done by the VOUME of bets you place from that strategy, so you do not need to bet on every pick. You can just bet when you are able. So don’t be afraid to follow more strategies than you actually have time to bet on.
Automated Bettors
Since we do not have to place each bet manually, we have more options. We can follow main and test strategies. The main strategies will be the ones we know and trust with our real betting banks. The test strategies can be run in simulation mode to see how well they work on Betfair Exchange, and also they give us the chance to see if a particular strategy on Betaminic is actually expressed better in another market on Betfair. For example I have some draw strategies where the 0-0 FT or 0-0 HT markets actually have much higher ROI than the original Match Odds market draw bet. There are also some home favourite strategies where laying the away dog if they score first makes higher ROI than the original Betaminic strategy. And also there are lay strategy opportunities. You can test out following strategies that make big losses on Betaminic and see if laying them the Betfair exchange makes profit. Lay strategies tend to have more picks per month, and now it is much easer to test that out with this new subscription model where we are paying for 30-days full access rather than pick-by-pick. We can run a lot more test bots with this new model.
4 New Snapshot and 16 Low Volatility Strategies worth looking at on Betaminic
So…which strategies should we follow?
I have made a snapshot of all the current public strategies on Betaminic. It is downable form my site. You can use this snapshot to filter down to the kind of strategies you want to use.
For example, the approach I have taken would be to:
- Filter down to just look at strategies with over 100 Since Shared (SS) bets so we can know the strategy is working and not just a product of data-mining or after-fitting.
- Filter down to just look at strategies with over 2000 All Results (AR) bets so we can know the strategy is based on big data and not just a very small slice of data from the last 12 years.
- Filter out strategies with MDDs of 50 or more. (AR)
- Filter out strategies with ROI under 5%. (AR/SS)
- Filter out strategies with ELS/MDD ratios of 3 or higher. (AR/SS)
- You might want to filter by Betaminic rating, but here we are doing our own filtering, so it is not completely necessary since we are doing our rating system.
- Finally rank and add them by MDD (AR) if you are using level stakes or by ELS/MDD ratios (AR) if you are using Whitaker Staking.
But you should of course filter things by what matters to you.
After you get a ranking of strategies that fit your betting style, then start at the top and work your way down.
If you are able to, then view the filters of each strategy as you decide to include them, and you may want to avoid strategies are almost identical except for league choice. For example, many of the top performing strategies are variants of Contend UD.
The Snapshot
This is like a menu of strategies. Sort and filter down to the ones you like. I am going to spend time over the coming weeks looking through this and adding some more strategies into my systems. You can download this snapshot from my site.
Easily filter and sort through the public strategies with this Excel file
Suggested strategies
After making my snapshot, I quickly filtered down using the method I explained above. After removing similar strategies, I ended up with 16 strategies that use 369 picks per month on average, which is easily doable with the 30-day subscription plan. They aim for 39 units profit per month on level stakes.
You can see those strategies with all their detailed stats in the snapshot excel file. I list some of the statistics here.
Since all these strategies have low MDD/ELS ratios of less than 3, I will call them the “Low Volatility Set” or “LV Set”.
I think they are low volatility because their losing runs have been less than 3 expected losing sequences. They have not had larger drawdowns than expected for their selections’ odds ranges.
Click on the name links to be taken to the strategies in the Betamin Builder.
# | Low Volatility Set Strategies | Username | Rating | Bet Type | AR | AR | MDD/ELS |
1 | Dave3310 | 34 | Over 2.5 goals | -12.48 | 11.39% | 1.07 | |
2 | Luis Augusto | 5 | Away Win (DNB) | -15.94 | 8.36% | 1.26 | |
3 | luisbang | 9 | Home Win | -22.86 | 13.75% | 1.28 | |
4 | nirnouta A | 8 | Draw | -24.85 | 18.63% | 1.18 | |
5 | Peyodeb | 20 | Home Win | -30.05 | 5.26% | 2.61 | |
6 | Maxi | 34 | Draw | -36.22 | 8.76% | 1.62 | |
7 | Tipstar | 15 | Away Win | -37.2 | 14.67% | 1.39 | |
8 | Misbe91 | 100 | Home Win | -37.96 | 13.40% | 1.60 | |
9 | bere02 | 9 | Draw | -40.23 | 8.88% | 1.56 | |
10 | bere02 | 26 | Draw | -41.14 | 8.49% | 1.63 | |
11 | nirnouta50 | 12 | Draw | -41.21 | 10.07% | 1.73 | |
12 | Maxi | 9 | Draw | -42.18 | 8.55% | 1.94 | |
13 | bere02 | 2 | Draw | -42.33 | 9.13% | 1.92 | |
14 | Betaminic | 16 | Draw | -43.83 | 7.06% | 1.91 | |
15 | jc_lc | 7 | Draw | -48.88 | 12.37% | 2.36 | |
16 | Maxi | 11 | Draw | -48.96 | 9.69% | 2.27 |
You do not have to follow all of these, but if you were wondering how to use your new subscription, then these strategies are good ones to look at and consider following, editing or just keeping an eye on.
Duplicate bets?
Since we are now following more strategies, we will get duplicate bets. Should you bet on them or not?
This is a big debate and up to each person.
Betaminic and a few BM veterans I know recommend we bet on duplicate picks so that we get results similar to each individual strategy we are following regardless of the other strategies we follow.
My personal preference is not to bet on duplicates since I feel it just ends up with randomly large bets on some matches compared to others, and then we go back to the panicked gambler feeling or praying that those particular fixtures win. I worry that duplicate bets make volatility even more extreme. I DO allow duplicate betting when I have separate systems. For example, if I have a draw system and a home win system both betting on the same match, I allow both bets. Some manual users faced with the same choice would only bet on the pick from the strategy with the higher ROI. The choice is up to you. But as an automated bettor, I just let them bet.
With the above set of 16, there are quite a few home and draw strategies. I would not bet on duplicate picks for those, especially the draw picks, since it would make liabilities on some matches randomly high.
ELS Multiplier Analysis
In July I did an analysis of 743 Public Betaminic strategies to find that 83% of strategies had MDDs lower than 4x their ELS.
This time in December, my analysis of 523 Public Betaminic strategies found that 82% of strategies had MDDs lower than 4x their ELS.
So I still feel that ELSx4 is a good default level for Whitaker Staking. An ELS x5 is also a good choice for people who want to be extra conservative with their staking since that covers 91% of the strategies studied.
My filtered down set of public strategies has an ELS/MDD ratio range of 0.99 – 2.61. So over the last 12 years they would have survived even with a 3x ELS Whitaker Staking plan. So I feel confident in my ELSx4 default setting.
July 2024 ELS Analysis
December 2024 ELS Analysis
5 Whitaker Staking: LC vs NLC
Put very simply:
Whitaker NLC is smart level stakes.
Whitaker LC is smart percentage staking.
Recommended use:
Use Whitaker NLC when your bank is above 100%. (Standard betting mode / Income Taking Mode)
Use Whitaker LC when you bank is below 100%. (Recovery mode / Aggressive capital growth mode)
Whitaker NLC is best when you are in profit and Whitaker LC is better when below 100% and you want to protect your bank and keep it alive for as long as possible.
Whitaker NLC can also work with smaller banks that you can refill if there is a bad run in the short term when you first start.
Whitaker LC can also work well with smaller banks when you are happy to risk 100% all the time by letting it run and just see how high the bank can go.
For example, if I had two bots, one running LC and the other NLC.
Whitaker NLC and LC both start with the same bank. e.g. 1k
For LC, as the bank balance changes, the stake is calculated as a % of the CURRENT bank. It is Linked to Current bank balance. So a 5% bet when the LC bank is on +500, i.e. a 1,500 bank, will be 5% of 1,500.
For NLC, even if the bank balance changes, the stake is always calculated as a % of the starting 1k bank. It is Not Linked to Current bank balance. So a 5% bet when the NLC bank is on +500, i.e. a 1,500 bank, will be 5% of 1,000. the original starting bank level, not the current bank balance.
How to switch between LC and NLC in BFBM bots?
For Whitaker LC staking, you need:
- Percent of Bank staking rule. The betting bank set here becomes your Whitaker LC bank. The Percent of bank rule should be set to “Use percent of betting bank from another staking plan.” The Percent of Bank rule MUST come AFTER the Odds Staking Ladder rule in the order or rules in the staking tab.
- Odds Staking Ladder rule set to “Percent of Betting Bank”.
For Whitaker NLC staking, you need:
- Level Stakes rule. Your level stake x 100 becomes your Whitaker NLC bank.
- Odds Staking Ladder rule set to “Multiplier”.
To switch from Whitaker LC to NLC, then add a Level Stakes rule and switch the Odds Staking Ladder rule set to “Multiplier”. (The level stakes rule amount multiplied by 100 will be the betting bank. So a Level stakes rule of £10 will be a £1000 bank.)
To switch from Whitaker NLC to LC, then delete the Level Stakes rule and switch the Odds Staking Ladder rule set to “Percent of Betting Bank”. (The bank set in the Percent of Betting Bank rule be the betting bank.)
So it is just a matter of adding or removing the level stakes rule each time you want to change mode between LC and NLC.
Latest Updates
You can get the latest information, as questions and interact with other uses in this Reddit community.
Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
Bf Bot Manager Bot Set
If you are using my bot sets and want an updated set including the BSG Draw System changes, please download it from this link
Whitaker NLC set for a 1k bank https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pzExhFXcykf5uigg-rFzLsmZwercOO7z/view?usp=sharing
Whitaker LC set for a 1k bank https://drive.google.com/file/d/15z7Cdkfk77tW9nooOGSYp_akd2jc99wR/view?usp=sharing
Support
If you want more details on the systems or want to start, then please look at my start up guide PDF.
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/start-now/
Best regards,
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 My YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PR_cqotGb8
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
4 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing BetInAsia or AsianConnect.
5 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
6 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.