Tom’s Betaminic Lay System
Aiming for +30% per month
+150% in last 2 months
*P/L based on Betfair closing odds. (2024/10/22- 2024/12/27)
This system is based on laying picks from a loss-making trend researched on the Betaminic database with their Betamin Builder tool. The idea is not to bear the bookies, but to find a trend that is especially negative and to try and copy the bookmaker by laying those picks and piggybacking on the losing trend. In effect, we are trying to be the bookie.
Betaminic themselves do not really encourage the use of their site for lay strategies, but I think it is an area that is worth researching. I know other veteran Betaminic users are making profit with lay strategies, and my first efforts with lay strategies have been going well. I share my best strategy here.
This is a LAY strategy, so you will need to use a betting exchange to lay these picks,
It still uses Whitaker staking, but for lay bets, the loss rate becomes the “win” rate for use that we use to calculate the liability we should risk on each bet. The excel file shows the lay liability amounts for manual bettors to use.
You can recreate this lay strategy in your private strategies are by copying the filters below.
(In principle, only back strategies can be shared on the public strategies page, so you need to make this one in your private strategies area.)
2024 BSG16 LAY the draw Betfair Exchange LAY STRATEGY
I included all leagues with losses of -5% yield or worse.
BSG17 Lay home team H2H AL
This strategy uses all 111 leagues, none are filtered out.
Lay Betting with Betaminic Strategies
Note the difference between Pinnacle Back Odds and Betfair Lay Odds
- Pinnacle closing odds are not the prices we lay at
- We get Betfair closing lay odds minus commission
- Early research suggests average 5% difference in prices.
My strategy has -9.25% ROI. Betfair lay odds are +5.27% higher than Pinnacle closing back odds average. So there is a 4% margin left. 2% of the profit will be taken by Betfair.
3.92% is the hypothetical lay ROI I am aiming for.
I choose leagues with -5% ROI or worse. And I look for strategies with: smooth downward trends and losses nearly every month
1 | 2024 BSG16 LAY the draw Betfair Exchange LAY STRATEGY | Betaminic strategy page My YouTube video demonstration | |
2 | BSG17 Lay home team H2H AL | Betaminic strategy page
| No public page. You need to re-create the strategy in your Betamin Builder “My strategies” private area. |
Example for level stakes
Bank: 100-unit bank
Bets: Lay the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: New strategy and lay method, so the average profit is not known yet. First 2 months has been very strong with the bank doubling.
Drawdown: New strategy and lay method, so the drawdown is not known yet. Estimated Potential Maximum Drawdown of -30 according to ELSx4.
Exit point: When 100-unit bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: €99.90 per 30-day subscription (£82) (The same subscription used for the back bet system.)
The Betamin Builder tool on Betaminic’s site uses a 30-day subscription model.
Each subscription gives you 30-days of full access to their database and includes up to 1000 picks. My full recommended system uses 840 picks per month, so it can be run with no problems with their 30-day subscription. Any of the 1000 pick allowance not used up gets rolled over to the next subscription period as long as you renew before the current subscription expires.