Whitaker Staking
I recommend Whitaker Staking since it balances the risk/reward ratio at every odds level.
The staking plan is explained with full research data in “The Staking Plans Book”.
What is Whitaker Staking?
Whitaker Staking is a method where each bet is placed at a percentage of the bank that is relative to its odds implied expected drawdown as calculated by the number of Expected Losing Sequences (ELS) we want the bank to survive over a specific number of bets.
Whitaker staking adjusts stake size based on the odds levels of each individual bet. It bets more on lower odds and less on higher odds. Lower odds bets tend to have higher win rates, and thus shorter losing runs which leads to less volatility in the short run. Higher odds bets tend to have lower win rates, and thus longer losing runs, which leads to more volatility in the short run. It aims to be the most advanced staking plan ever made.
The stake percentage is calculated based on an Expected Losing Sequence (ELS) multiple and the number of bets to be considered.
The ELS tells us the statistically expected number of times a bet at specified odds is likely to lose in a continuous unbroken streak for a set number of tries based on its odds implied probability of occurring.
For example, a 50-50 coin toss with odds of 2.00 has an ELS of 1 for 2 tries, so it would be statistically normal (neither lucky nor unlucky) for 1 of the 2 coin tosses to be a loser, but not impossible for both to lose in a row. But a 50-50 coin toss with odds of 2.00 has an ELS of 10 after 1000 tries, It would be statistically normal (neither lucky nor unlucky) for 10 of the 1000 coin tosses to lose in a row. Any betting system based on such bets should plan that 10 losses in a row are expected to come, and the staking plan should be able to handle that. A 50-50 coin toss with odds of 2.00 has an ELS of 13 after 10000 tries. It is the law of numbers that the more we do something, the more chance of larger extremes occurring.
Most bettors are not concerned with the length of losing sequences, but the maximum drawdown a betting system might have from cumulative losing sequences. The staking plan should be able to help the bank survive those drawdowns without going bankrupt and still be able to move forward and make meaningful profit. We can estimate the drawdowns of a betting system as a multiple of its ELS. Drawdowns are basically the equivalent of several ELSs happening close to each other. We just need to decide how many ELSs we want the bank to be able to survive. Whitaker Staking’s default settings are to survive four ELSs over a 1000 bet period, but we can adjust the settings to be more or less aggressive. A higher ELS calculated over a longer bet period will be more conservative, a lower ELS calculated over a shorter bet period will be more aggressive.
I compared the ELSs and maximum historical drawdowns of 743 betting strategies, many of them with over 5,000 bets of data going back 12 years. The result was that 83% of those strategies had drawdowns that were their ELSs of less than 4. This is why I chose the ELSx4 as the default setting. If a higher ELS multiple is chosen, then it covers even more volatile strategies, but as the ELS multiplier increases, the stake size decreases and the betting bank may be getting used less efficiently just to protect against the absolute worst-case scenarios. It is a risk-reward balance.
For example, if we wanted to bet on those 1000 coin tosses without going bankrupt, we might look at the ELS of 10 and decide we want to survive four ELSs. Four ELSs of 10 makes a maximum expected drawdown of -40 units. (4 x 10 = 40). If we have a 100-point bank, then we would divide that by 40 to get 2.5. So we can plan that by betting 2.5 points per coin-toss, we think our bank can survive the statistically expected drawdown that is perfectly likely to happen over the next 1000 bets. We think this should work for 83% of betting strategies. If we wanted to be more conservative, we could try to survive 6 ELSs which we think will work for 95% of betting strategies. An ELSx6 for odds of 2.00 over 1000 bets would be -60 units. Then we divided a 100 point bank by 60 to get 1.66. So we can plan that by betting 1.66 points on each coin toss, we think our bank is capable of avoiding bankruptcy in 95% of situations. But stake sizes are lower, so we might be being inefficient with our bank.
The stake size is calculated for each individual bet based on its odds.
For example, if we set an ELS multiple of 4 for a 1000 bet period, the stake levels will be as below:
Odds | Stake as % of bank | Profit Target as % of bank |
1.50 | 3.98% | 1.99% |
2.00 | 2.51% | 2.51% |
2.50 | 1.85% | 2.77% |
3.00 | 1.47% | 2.93% |
4.00 | 1.04% | 3.12% |
8.00 | 0.48% | 3.38% |
20.00 | 0.19% | 3.53% |
These all seem like very sensible numbers.
You can read more detail about how this staking plan was researched and the logic behind it in the 333 page The Staking Plans Book.
A Shared Bank for all you betting systems
Due to statistical independence, our next stake should always be calculated at the right stake size for the bank at this moment. Each bet is unconnected, so it could come from the BSG Draw System, a Betaminic strategy bet, or any other bet with long term positive value. One bank does not need to be exclusively kept for one system.
This means that all bets, from all your betting strategies, can share the same bank if they are using Whitaker Staking. Since it is actually already giving each odds range its own ELSx4 unit bank to avoid going bankrupt. But you do have one big decision. Do you link your Whitaker 4 staking to your current your cumulative balance (LC) or to your starting bank (NLC).
NLC means “Not Linked to Cumulative” bank balance i.e. constant stakes based on a percentage of the starting bank.
LC means “Linked to Cumulative” bank balance i.e. stakes are based on a percentage of the current betting bank balance.
More simply, Whitaker NLC is smart level stakes. Whitaker LC is smart percentage staking.
LC or NLC? Link to Cumulative Bank (LC) or not (NLC)? Smart level stakes or smart percentage staking?
If we link the staking plan to the cumulative bank (LC), then it allows you to commit a fixed amount to the system and not have to refill if there is a losing run. If you get winning runs, then your bank will increase very quickly and make more money than the NLC version, BUT once you have a high balance, you could still see that drop by 50% on a bad run, so you are always risking all of your bank. More risk for more gain over the long term.
If we don’t link the staking plan to the cumulative bank (NLC), it is risky in the short term if you hit several losing runs and your bank gets reduced a lot. But it will rebound quicker from early losing runs since it does not reduce its stakes. AND, the longer you follow the system, the safer your bank will be as losing runs will probably only affect your profit after you hit the 1,000 bet mark. Less risk for less gain over the long term.
For me, I think LC is good for building a smaller bank, and then NLC is good for protecting a larger bank.
My recommendation is to split your bank 50-50 between Whitaker NLC and LC.
This is because we do not know which scenario we will face in our betting period:
Scenario A | Good Plane | IF it is a smooth ride up, then the LC will make lots of profit. |
Scenario B | Good Rollercoaster | IF it is a volatile ride up with big losing and winning runs, then it is the luck of the wins and losses timing over if LC or NLC will win more, but LC will probably come up on top BUT have massive -50%/+100% months that are not for the faint hearted. |
Scenario C | Big Drop or Big Climb First Rollercoaster | IF there is a big losing run at the start, but then it returns to profit, then NLC will make more profit in the short term until the LC bank recovers. IF there is a big winning run at the start, followed by an equally big losing run, but still ending in decent profit, then NLC will make more profit since LC loses more from the bigger bank’s larger stakes in the second half. |
Scenario D | Bumpy Rollercoaster ending flat | IF it is a volatile ride up and down, ending up flat, with a bit of profit or loss at the end on level stakes, then NLC will make more profit than LC. |
Scenario E | Bad Plane | IF it is a smooth ride down, then LC will slowly head towards 0, but NLC will hit -100 points first, and then be stopped manually. |
So, if we split the bank 50-50 between Whitaker NLC and LC, then we hedge our bets and get the best of both worlds. Even if our betting system wins long term, we don’t know if we are going to hit a smooth upward trend or a volatile flat trend, so the two bank system hedges bets on both.
The NLC part gives us stability through bumpy periods, and the LC bot gives us a chance of a lucky lottery ticket ride that could x10 our banks on a good run of positive volatility.
Also, if we run LC only, then there is indecision about when to stop, is it when the bank reaches 20%, 10%, 1% of its original levels? If we split our bank 50-50, then the stopping point is when the combined LC-NLC banks reach -100% of the starting bank. Then the betting system gets stopped and the strategies and settings reviewed for the next plan.
I am spreading my risk on my betting systems by running a bank split between NLC and LC.
My automated bot set
I think Whitaker NLC and LC as mixed bots will be the long run winners.
At the moment I am thinking the best way will be to cut the bank in half, half for a NLC bot and half for a LC bot and then just let them run for 12 months.
My new bot set splits a £1,000 bank between a Whitaker NLC bot and a Whitaker LC% bot.
The Whitaker LC back and lay bots are linked so they share the same £500 starting bank.
How does Whitaker Staking LC / NLC perform when applied to different data?
The 3 months from April to July 2024 were not good, which makes it a great period to test my staking plan on.
Simple 1 unit level stakes NLC made a -234 units loss.
Simple 1 point level stakes LC made a -99% loss on the 100 point bank, basically bankruptcy.
But Whitaker Staking LC would have broken even with 0 points.
And Whitaker Staking NLC would have made a profit of +24 points. (+24% on the bank).
I applied Whitaker Staking (LC and NLC) to all my available data from April 1s.to July 6th 2024. This included Betaminic LowDrawdown9, Betaminic Contend UD, Betaminic TennisBets and the old version of the BSG Draw System Bots A1-A6, and the now discarded Betaminic Draws A2,. Unfortunately, I could not get all the reliable data for BetaminicDraws A1, A3, A4 & A5 bots. So we miss out on a lot of profit there in this data, but that is okay since I am trying to see what happens in a bad run. All strategies were mixed together in the same bank. At this time I was using separate level stakes banks for each system, but since July 2024 I switched to using one mixed bank with Whitaker Staking.
You can see the performance in the graphs below.
The fact that Whitaker Staking took what I thought was an awful -234 unit losing run and turned it into +24% profit on the bank gives me great belief that my new combination of Whitaker Staking with ELSx4 bank management has finally cracked the staking mystery and found the perfect staking plan.
This is why I highly recommend using Whitaker Staking with your betting system.
The staking % is calculated using the odds inferred win rate to calculate the ELSx4 (Expected Losing Sequence) for that odds level. Each odds level effectively gets its own ELSx4 calculated unit bank. The ELSx4 is my conservative bank calculation so that at each odds level the bank can survive 4 expected losing runs happening in quick succession. This is enough for most betting strategies.
You can see how much is staked for each odds level in this Excel file.
Whitaker Staking Excel File Download Excel File version here
Whitaker Staking in the Bf Bot Manager
A dedicated Whitaker Staking rule has been added to the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair Exchange.
This rule allows the use of Whitaker Staking as described in The Staking Plans Book by Tom Whitaker.
Main settings
The ELS Multiple (default 4) and Number of Bets (default 1000), can be set.
For the calculated value:
Using the Stake option is the equivalent of Whitaker NLC Staking with a 100-unit bank of your Betfair currency. (NLC means Not Linked to Cumulative bank)
Using the Multiplier option is the equivalent of Whitaker NLC Staking with a 100-point bank multiplied by the stake set in the level stakes rule that should be used together with this option. E.g. a separate level stakes rule set to £10 would mean a £1,000 bank for Whitaker NLC staking (£10 level stakes x 100 point bank = £1000 starting bank). (NLC means Not Linked to Cumulative bank, so stakes are calculated based on the starting betting bank level, not the current bank level.)
Using the Percentage of betting bank option is the equivalent of Whitaker LC Staking applied to the bank size set in the Percentage of Betting Bank rule that should come AFTER the Whitaker Staking rule in the Staking rules tab, (LC means Linked to Cumulative bank, so stakes are calculated based on the current betting bank level, not the starting bank level.)
Other Settings
A Divisor (default 1) can also be used when a stake needs to be split among multiple bots betting on the same outcome.
A Lay Mode checkbox can be used for lay strategies.
Whitaker NLC Staking Plan also needs Level Stakes Rule in BFBM
For Whitaker NLC staking, you need:
- Level Stakes rule. Your level stake x 100 becomes your Whitaker NLC bank.
- Whitaker staking plan rule set to “Multiplier”.
Whitaker LC Staking also needs Percentage of Betting Bank staking rule AFTER the Whitaker staking rule in BFBM
For Whitaker LC staking, you need:
- Percent of Bank staking rule. The betting bank set here becomes your Whitaker LC bank. The Percent of bank rule should be set to “Use percent of betting bank from another staking plan.” The Percent of Bank rule MUST come AFTER the Whitaker staking rule in the order or rules in the staking tab.
- Whitaker staking plan rule set to “Percent of Betting Bank”.
Manual Betting with Whitaker Staking
For manual bettors, you can use my very basic Whitaker Staking Excel file that can calculate your next stake if you edit the yellow cells. It also has an example table for ELS4-1000 back and lay bet settings.
Whitaker Staking Excel File Download Excel File version here
Advanced Whitaker Staking Spreadsheets
Steve Davidson, who is much better at spreadsheets than me, has actually made two Whitaker spreadsheets that both calculate stakes, log bets and show profit graphs for back bets. The online version can be accessed from any browser, even your smartphone. The downloadable Excel file can be used for pasting in data and backtesting different Whitaker Staking settings in addition to the stake calculation and bet logging functions.
Whitaker Staking Cloud Spreadsheet
- Access your Whitaker betting spreadsheet from anywhere! (Smartphone, internet browser, tablet, PC, etc.)
- Calculate Whitaker Staking % or add bet data easily from your smartphone.
- Easily edit staking plan settings (ELS multiple / Bet Number)
- Backtest bet data to see the effect of different Whitaker Staking settings on manually entered results. (Pasting in data only possible with Excel version)
- Never lose your data. Access from any internet browser!
- LC and NLC Staking both possible.
- NLC bank resetting threshold levels enabled.
5-year license for Cloud Spreadsheet £29.97 – Just 50p a month to get a powerful betting tool in your pocket or PC!
Whitaker Staking Excel Spreadsheet
Has similar functions to the cloud spreadsheet, but you get it as an Excel file that you keep on your PC. The most significant difference is that you get the ability to paste in columns of data from other sources.
(You must have Microsoft Excel 2007 or better. No clone spreadsheet software will work this spreadsheet.)
- Paste in data from other spreadsheets for backtesting or continuing bet logs (Excel version only)
- Calculate Whitaker Staking % or add bet data easily in the Excel file..
- Easily edit staking plan settings (ELS multiple / Bet Number)
- Backtest bet data to see the effect of different Whitaker Staking settings on results.
- LC and NLC Staking both possible.
- NLC bank resetting threshold levels enabled.
Examples of Whitaker Staking in action
Jan 5th to Jan 13th 2025 results from BSG Draw System
In the above example taken from my Bf Bot Manager automated betting software, we can see how 5 different staking plans performed with the same 172 bets.
While the more traditional level stakes and 1% percentage staking made losses, both Whitaker LC and NLC made profit. Target profit staking also made profit, but as we know, the stakes get dangerously high for lower odds with Target Profit staking as shown in my analysis in The Staking Plans Book.
So from a 100 point bank, we see Whitaker NLC made +6.31 points while level stakes lost -12.32 points.
The above data is taken from a Betaminic strategy called Banker???
The August 12th 2022 to October 10th 2024 results show Whitaker LC was the best staking plan by far over those 1,013 bets.
The win rate of the strategy indicated an ELS of 5. By multiplying that by 4, I got an estimated drawdown of -20. That meant I could bet 5 points per bet of a 100 point bank. This is effectively a 20 unit bank. If we know the win rate of a betting system in advance, then we can calculate a level stakes unit bank for that system. But in many cases, we don’t know the win rate in advance, so Whitaker Staking is easier since it does not need to know the win rate. It calculates the implied win rate based on the odds of each bet.
When we look at all the data since 2022 for the Banker?? strategy, we see the Whitaker LC profits go to impractically high figures of +250,000 points and swings of +/-100,000 points. The Whitaker NLC profits remain steady heading to a very possible +800 points. Realistically, we are unlikely to let a betting system run for 12 years with no withdrawals and reac +250,000 points. This chart is just for data analysis purposes. This illustrates my meaning very well when I say LC risks ALL of you bank ALL of the time, but NLC does not. So I recommend the 50-50 split bank method.
This graph shows a slow up and slow down level stakes set of results over 580 bets from last year in November 2024 with the BetaminicLdsys set of 4 strategies. The point I show here is that LC and NLC both improve on level stakes in this set of data, even though level stakes ended flat. We can see how LC reaches +170 at its peak, but then retreats to +90. This would feel like a near -50% drop in the bank to some people. But the NLC bank seems like it slowly plodded its way to similar results. Which graph is better for your stress levels? Again, I would prefer a 50-50 split and make withdrawals when profit targets get reached.
This set of 9 strategies mixed together again shows level stakes having an early profit run and then slowly going back to zero. Whitaker LC and NLC both make profit over these 300 bets though. The aggressive ELSx4 level stakes 25 unit bank makes the biggest loss.
After this graph was made, the tennis betting system went on a massive losing run in November/December, but this graph shows well how a winning run gets multiplied a lot by Whitaker LC, so it is a “lucky lottery ticket” in some senses that when a good run comes, it will make the most efficient use of the betting bank.
These results are taken from a breakeven tipster on tippingsports.com. It shows how a bumpy rollercoaster ride leads to big ups and downs with LC staking, but NLC fairly smoothly rides it upwards.
This graph shows a run of poor flat and losing results look. In the end, not even Whitaker staking can save the profits, but Whitaker staking does not do worse than level stakes here.
The above strategy data is taken from the new set of strategies I am using in 2025. I backtested results with 2024 data to see what I am hoping to win if the trend repeats.
I can see that level stakes made +170 units, while Whitaker LC made +379 and Whitaker NLC +270. I would split my bank, so (270+379) / 2 = +324 points. If these strategies repeat their trend, then I would hope for the bank to increase +324%. So a 2k bank would aim to become 8,480 (2k starting bank + 6.48k profit)
That is only IF it repeats its 2024 trend.
If I know that is my target, then I could, in theory, end the project’s plan when it reaches that target level. We can see in the graph how LC reached +2000 points after 3,600 bets. At that point, we would know we are far exceeding our target for the year, so we might consider profit taking there and resetting our bank and betting plan.
This is the beauty of big data betting, if you know your expected profit target, and you know when you are being lucky or unlucky, then you can make better decisions.