League Filtering Method Research Plan
I went through x29 Betaminic back strategies I chose to reconfirm they are the ones I want to follow.
I wanted to know, what are the best league selections and how do I keep them up to date with the latest data?
When we have a working strategy, and we want to update the leagues included based on the latest data, what is the best way to choose leagues?
I took each of the 29 strategies and separated them into two data sets, a Research Period (RP) and a Test Period (TP).
I then applied each league filtering method to the Research Period Data and then checked the Test Period Data to see how that method of league filtering preformed.
For this research I made my Research Period data using seasons starting in 2012 to 2021, which was 10 seasons of data. And I made my Test Period data using seasons starting in 2022 to 2025 which was 3 seasons of data.
I tested these 8 league filtering methods:
- All Leagues
- Positive Inclusion
- Negative Exclusion
- By yields +1%
- By yields +5%
- By yields +10%
- Original leagues
- Add by Maximum Drawdown (MDD) effect
The league filtering methods in more detail:
All Leagues (AL) means including even loss making leagues in a strategy, the idea being that filtering out leagues increases the chances of overfitting. So if a strategy works across all leagues, then it is highly likely that it is a real trend in the market models. But it means lower yields and higher volumes of picks.
Negative Exclusion (NE) means starting with all leagues and only removing leagues that have yields under +5% AND have more than 100 bets in their data set. This means that some loss making leagues are still included since we do not have enough data to prove the trend is not working in those leagues. Again, the idea is that we try to use as many leagues as possible and only remove leagues that have lots of data to prove that the trend does not work well for them.
Positive Inclusion (PI) means starting with no leagues and only adding leagues that have yields over 5% AND have more than 100 bets in their data set. The idea is that we are only following leagues where the profitable trend is strong. But this increases the chance of data mining since we are just “picking the winning leagues” and so pretty much any strategy can be made to look good this way. BUT many top performing Betaminic strategies were created this way initially.
By yields +1%, +5%, +10% (Y1%, Y5%, Y10%) is simply including any leagues with yields above that mark, ignoring how many bets worth of data a league has. The idea being that each time we refresh leagues, we are just keeping those that show any sign of positive yield.
Original Leagues (OL) just keeps the original leagues chosen by the user who first made the strategy. Here we believe that they knew what they were doing when they chose those leagues and stick with them.
Add by Maximum Drawdown Effect (MDDE) adds the top leagues by profit up to a MDD of -20, and then the next profitable leagues are added only if they don’t increase the MDD and have a minimum of 1 unit of profit. So we may sometimes add leagues with lower yields than those excluded because they did not increase MDD. The aim here is to keep volatility as low as possible, and to keep unstable leagues out. We start with the league with highest profit since it is likely to have a good balance of yield vs bet data.
League Filtering Method Research Results
First, I totalled up all the TP profit of each strategy by league filtering method.
Using the Original Leagues came out on top, with MDDE second and Y1% third.
One problem here is that “use original leagues” is not useful advice when I am creating my own strategies or if I am trying to update or re-engineer strategies. I need to know the league filtering method that works best overall.
The second placed method was MDDE (adding leagues by Maximum Drawdown Effect). Remember that this method sorts leagues by profit, then adds them if they do not push the MDD over -20 or the chosen level for that league.
One big thing I notice here is that the aim of the MDDE method is to reduce drawdown, but 27 of the 29 strategies all ended up with TP drawdowns higher than the initial RP level. And 9 of the 29 ended up with MDDs over -40 units. The biggest MDD in the RP data was -25 and the biggest MDD was -95 in the TP data. So, as a way of finding which league filtering method works best to find leagues where the trend continues and makes profit, then the MDDE method works, but as a way of reducing drawdown and volatility, it does not. When we add in ELS analysis and see what ELS multiple the Test Period MDD got up to (using the TP win rate), then we see most strategies stayed under x4 ELS but 4 of the 29 strategies go over ELSx4 with 5.20, 5.48, 5.98 and 7.29. This makes me feel a general ELSx10 might be a safer method if trying to make an “unbreakable” bank that can survive volatility.
If the MDDE method is not reducing volatility, then why is it doing better?
If we look at the 3rd best method, which is 1% yield filtering, then we see similar outcomes. Both MDDE and Y1% got overall yields in the 4% range from their bets.
But the Y1% method has a much higher MDD of -149 compared to the MDDE method which has a -95 MDD.
By the way, those MDD figures are taking the WORST single strategy’s MDD from the 29 strategies. It is not an average.
I think the issue is that a trend does exist, but we are finding it hard to isolate. We can ether try to be very specific and just select high yield leagues or be very broad and select s many leagues as possible in the hope of catching all of the trend and not mistakenly exclude parts of it.
One clear thing is that following as many leagues as possible is the worst way. It leads to the worst results and the highest drawdown. This is actually the method I had been trying to follow myself this year!
Note that the AL results also include strategies that are not meant to be used with all leagues and only work when used with filtered leagues. I included them for completeness.
And also, trying to be too specific by selecting higher yielding leagues also risks cutting out leagues where the trend is working. It does not reduce the MDD either.
So MDDE or 1% works the best of all so far.
When researching leagues, does it matter if the trend does not work for All Leagues? What about if we just look at strategies that work for All Leagues in the RP data period? Will that increase the chances of our strategy making profit long term? Let’s check.
20 of the 29 strategies make profit with all leagues in the RP data period.
We see similar results. MDDE and Y1% top the rankings for league selection. Even though following all leagues still makes profit overall. This suggests we should just be following those leagues that show profit in the research period and excluding all loss making leagues.
When we update strategies with the latest data, we should definitely exclude the loss making leagues.
80% 16 of the 20 strategies which made profit using All Leagues in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with MDDE filtering.
70% 14 of the 20 strategies which made profit using All Leagues in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with Y1% filtering.
55% 11 of the 20 strategies which made profit using All Leagues in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with All Leagues filtering.
77% 7 of the 9 strategies which made losses using All Leagues in the Research Period data made profit in the Test Period with MDDE filtering.
55% 5 of the 9 strategies which made losses using All Leagues in the Research Period data made profit in the Test Period with Y1% filtering.
33% 3 of the 9 strategies which made losses using All Leagues in the Research Period data made profit in the Test Period with All Leagues filtering.
So making losses using All Leagues in the Research Period data does not strongly indicate it will continue to make losses if you use MDDE or Y1% league filtering.
But there is a slight advantage to having a strategy make profit over all leagues.
Also, in terms of profit:
76% 22 of the 29 strategies which made profit using MDDE in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with MDDE filtering.
62% 18 of the 29 strategies which made profit using Y1% in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with Y1% filtering.
45% 13 of the 29 strategies which made profit using All Period in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with All Leagues filtering.
There is a strong indication that the MDDE and also the Y1% league filtering method increase the chances of profitable outcomes.
My conclusion here is that we should:
- Filter leagues by MDDE method or Y1%.
- Always exclude loss making leagues.
- If you want to improve chances of success slightly, then choosing strategies that make profit over all leagues can help.
My next question is, if the MDDE does not do what it is meant to (making strategies with lower volatility), is it getting good results because it is effectively choosing similar leagues to the Y1% method but excluding some lower yielding leagues with many bets that increase the chances of pushing the MDD lower? Is this really a battle between leagues with yields of 1% or more versus leagues with 1 point of profit or more, and not the MDDE method? But here I would argue that the MDDE method gets rid of leagues where it has had longer losing runs than other leagues and indicates that the trend is not as consistent there. Another issue is that it took me 4 weeks to do this review and getting the data for comparing Y1 to 1P to MDDE will have to wait for the next review.
How do the Y1% results compare to the MDDE results strategy by strategy?
Does the TP drawdown always get significantly worse by the Y1% method?
20 of the 29 strategies had Y1% MDDs worse than the MDDE method MDDs in the Test Period data.
The biggest differences in MDD come where the MDDE version had cut out a lot more leagues than the Y1% version. This would have been due to adding those leagues leading to an increase of the MDD over the -20 limit.
From the above table we can see the P&L columns for both the Y1% and MDDE methods have many green cells with the MDDE method having more green cells.
On the far right we can see three “difference” columns for MDD, Bet Number and Profit. Columns with green background are where using the MDDE method was the right choice and did better, but a red background shows where the Y1% method did better.
In terms of drawdown, the MDDE method does indeed do better. It reduces the MDD in most cases, but not all.
In terms of profit, however, effects are more 50-50 with 13 of the 29 strategies making less profit than the Y1% method by using the MDDE method. We then have the question, that depends on the bettor which is more important profit or MDD? For me, it is profit.
Looking at the extreme top 1 and bottom 4 strategies by MDD difference, we see that MDDE filtering saved us from some big drawdowns by Y1%, but that does not work in all cases and it turned one winning draw strategy into a losing one.
If we remove those 5 extreme outliers, we see the difference between the two methods is much closer.
But we are trying to find a safer method to avoid the volatility we have seen recently. So I think the MDDE method is still the better one to choose.
So what is the MDDE league filtering method doing besides reducing MDD? It may in fact removing leagues that have historically proven themselves to be volatile and not consistent for this trend. In fact, that is what the person who first suggested this method to me said, it is a way to reduce volatility of the strategies. While it seems that we cannot prevent some new volatility in leagues, we can at least remove strategies that have proved themselves to be volatile in the past with this method.
How did I do the MDDE method exactly, step by step?
- Use all current data.
- Sort leagues by profit
- Add the top league by profit
- Choose a MDD limit based on that first league. (I have -20 as a default limit in my mind, but if the first league is already -22, then I increase it to -25 or -30 based on the All League filtering average odds. Higher odds strategies will naturally have higher MDDs, while lower odds strategies should have lower MDDs.)
- Add each league 1 by 1 and only keep them in if they do not increase the MDD over your target level.
- Stop when you get to a minimum profit level. (I used 1 point as my minimum profit level.)
This process is very time consuming, but you learn a bit about the character of the strategy and the nature of statistics as you are going through the leagues.
Automating the MDDE process.
A kind Betaminic veteran offered to write a script to automate the MDDE process as described above.
It takes me about 15-20 minutes to manually go through a strategy with the MDDE league filtering method. This script got it down to about 10-15 minutes and I did not have to manually do it myself.
It works using the “TamperMonkey” extension for Chrome where I pasted his script into TamperMonkey. Once I had it setup, I could enter a Max DD limit, and optional filters like a minimum P/L, Yield or Total Bets, and then let it run!
It would go down the league list and check each league for me.
If I had not had this, then it would have taken me longer to do this review and I may even have given up.
I cannot share his TamperMonkey script for free. But the programmer has agreed to sell it for 40 GBP.
When running, you need to leave the screen as it is and not change to other screens. It works smoothly most times, but occasionally it gets stuck and you need to reload the screen and try again. But overall, it cut my workload and let me have a break while it did the selecting, clicking and calculating for me while I had a coffee break or did something else.
You can get it here: https://bettingsystemsguide.com/product/mdde-league-filtering-script-for-tampermonkey-extension/
I will now update all my strategies based on this. I will share them and give them the prefix tag MDDE. I will also write in the description if the strategy works with all leagues.
A-Rank and B-Rank strategies
80% 16 of the 20 strategies which made profit using All Leagues in the Research Period data continued to make profit in the Test Period with MDDE filtering.
77% 7 of the 9 strategies which made losses using All Leagues in the Research Period data made profit in the Test Period with MDDE filtering.
Since strategies filtered by MDDE that also work with all leagues seem to have a slightly higher chance of success, I will call them A-rank strategies, and those filtered by MDDE but do not work with all leagues as B-rank. It is up to you if you want to follow just A-rank strategies or also B-rank ones, too.
But my data size of 29 strategies that have historically done well is very small and there may even be no difference between the A and B rank strategies in terms of MDD and chances of profit.
Bank Size and Staking
Another question is, if we cannot trust the MDDE RP MD (The historical maximum drawdown shown in the research period of the MDD effect filter strategy), then what can we base our bank on that reduces the chances of data mining or human error?
I compared the All Leagues Research Period MDD to the MDDE Test Period MDD to see if the All Leagues RP MDD could give us a hint of what MDD to actually expect. There was no real correlation with a range of the MDDE Maximum Drawdown being 8% of the AL RP MDD all the way up to 135%. Based on that you could say that the AL RP MDD gives us an upper limit of about 150% as a guess of what the possible MDD could be.
Strategy | AL RP MDD | MDDE TP MDD | MDD Proportion |
AH +0 Away | -313.46 | -25.87 | 0.08 |
Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | -172.8 | -16.99 | 0.10 |
championnat nul d6 | -131.97 | -14.25 | 0.11 |
e2 | -158.37 | -26.29 | 0.17 |
Losers Find Win | -402.52 | -76.54 | 0.19 |
Tipstar 203 Away Wins | -225.58 | -44.98 | 0.20 |
Colossus 01 Home Dog | -32.88 | -6.64 | 0.20 |
BANKER?? | -169.17 | -34.52 | 0.20 |
We can Win | -105.38 | -22.42 | 0.21 |
TOM WHITAKER BSG 11 Home Chance | -117.28 | -28.32 | 0.24 |
OVER 2. | -66.68 | -21.99 | 0.33 |
nul x a | -91.57 | -33.18 | 0.36 |
TOM WHITAKER HD4 Very Poor Home part 1 | -31.55 | -11.52 | 0.37 |
TW Score Draw | -189.96 | -70.78 | 0.37 |
Big vs Good – Top Leagues | -33.12 | -12.64 | 0.38 |
A 9 | -41.14 | -17.91 | 0.44 |
UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ | -48.89 | -26.11 | 0.53 |
M2 B + | -63.72 | -35.83 | 0.56 |
No Draws Medium Streak | -53.48 | -30.37 | 0.57 |
A 8 | -40.23 | -24.58 | 0.61 |
TOM WHITAKER BDHY Pro-Home V2 (Re-Engineered “Pro-Home ” by Louisbang | -65 | -42.05 | 0.65 |
No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams | -34.94 | -26.86 | 0.77 |
Contend UD 1.3 | -52.57 | -45.94 | 0.87 |
Vitória do mandante com dos alta | -56.04 | -50.39 | 0.90 |
Contend UD | -59.18 | -56.3 | 0.95 |
Empate Equipos igualados | -93.59 | -95.96 | 1.03 |
2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | -37.88 | -39.38 | 1.04 |
Golden6.6 – Draws are in late 2.0 | -32.96 | -40.7 | 1.23 |
ZA101 | -24.59 | -33.23 | 1.35 |
I also looked at the All Leagues Research Period ELS (Estimated Losing Sequence) based on its win rate and compared that to the eventual MDDE Test Period drawdown to see if there was any correlation.
The end result is that most strategies can survive an ELSx4 and the highest drawdown was the ELSx6.4.
So a level stakes unit bank of ELSx7 would have worked for any of these strategies.
But even an ELSx7 unit level stakes bank would see drawdowns up to 90% of the bank.
An ELSx10 would be a safer, more conservative level.
Again, this could be run as a simple level stakes unit bank or with Whitaker Staking.
So, in the descriptions of my strategies I will also note the All Leagues RP MDD, win rate and ELS in case people want to make individual level stakes banks based on those statistics. I will use Whitaker Staking ELSx10.
How much profit can we hope for?
Again, if we cannot rely on the MDDE RP data to predict the TP MDD, how can we trust it for the profit prediction?
I compared the “Average monthly profit” of the Research Period data (RP) to the Test Period data (TP) to see how the profit levels matched.
There was a 76% chance of profit with the MDDE method.
But the profit levels never matched the RP data, they were shadows of the trend.
In the above chart, we can see that in most cases, profit levels were between 0-60% of the RP profit level. The average was 20% of the RP profit level.
So as a rule of thumb, when we see an RP monthly profit level of +3.46 points per month, we can hope for 50% and plan for 20% of that level, meaning hope for 1.73 points and plan for 0.70 points per month.
But this means that overall, if we follow multiple strategies created with the MDDE league filtering method, then we can aim for 76% of those making profit and covering the losses of the other 24%. And those losses are from natural variance during the 3 seasons covered. So this new method is finding a way to survive natural variance through proper league choice.
+1% Yield Leagues
How about the 1% Yields method? Does that see similar results?
We do see a similar trend in results. But overall results are worse than MDDE.
62% of Y1% method strategies made profit in their TP data compared to 76% for MDDE.
The average profit level was 16% of the RP average monthly profit compared to 20% for MDDE.
So MDDE wins here, too. But the good point is that there is a level of correlation between RP profit data and TP profit data.
In the above chart, we can see that in most cases, profit levels were between 0-60% of the RP profit level. The average was 20% of the RP profit level.
So as a rule of thumb, when we see an RP monthly profit level of +3.46 points per month, we can hope for 50% and plan for 20% of that level, meaning hope for 1.73 points and plan for 0.70 points per month.
But this means that overall, if we follow multiple strategies created with the MDDE league filtering method, then we can aim for 76% of those making profit and covering the losses of the other 24%. And those losses are from natural variance during the 3 seasons covered. So this new method is finding a way to survive natural variance through proper league choice.
All Leagues Profit Data
How about the All Leagues method? Does that see similar results?
62% of All Leagues method strategies made profit in their TP data compared to 76% for MDDE and 62% for Y1%.
The average profit level was -250% of the RP average monthly profit compared to 20% for MDDE and 16% for Y1%.
There is much more extreme range of results with using all leagues. The variance and inconsistency is much higher.
But interestingly both the All Leagues method and the Y1% yield method had a 62% profit rate for their strategies.
The above data, however, includes all strategies, even those that made a loss in their AL RP data period.
What if we run this test only with the 19 strategies that made profit in their AL RP period?
53% of All Leagues Profitable method strategies made profit in their TP data compared to 62% of All Leagues, 76% for MDDE and 62% for Y1%.
The average profit level was -550% of the RP average monthly profit compared to -250% for All Leagues, 20% for MDDE and 16% for Y1%.
These results are surprising. I would have expected if All Leagues make profit that there would be a more positive correlation.
But again, I think this means that we should not include any losing leagues. These leagues clearly do not work for the strategy filters and we should only focus on the profitable leagues, preferably elected by the MDDE method or at simplest the Y1% method.
It also puts a bit of uncertainty over the notion of A and B rank strategies since it seems making profit in the All Leagues RP period does not necessarily lead to a higher chance of profit in the TP period. So we should not ignore strategies just because they do not make profit with All Leagues.
Based on this review, I think we have a more solid league selection method moving forward and also a better grasp of how to calculate estimated drawdowns and also more realistic understanding of our profit targets.
My conclusion here is that:
- Filter leagues by MDDE method or Y1%.
- Always exclude loss making leagues.
- For unit bank planning, calculate the estimated MDD as maximum 150% of the All Leagues MDD. (Average MDD is 50% of the AL MDD. The range is from 8% to 135% ) Or use Whitaker Staking ELSx10.
- Aim for monthly profit of 50% of the MDDE RP levels, but plan for 20%. (The range is from -50% to +90% of the MDDE RP monthly profit levels.)
- Each MDDE strategy has a 75% chance of making profit
Updated Strategies
Here are the update versions of the strategies I have been following.
I shared the ones I could, but some of them you will need to duplicate and update yourself in the Betamin Builder.
A-Rank
(Strategy filters even made profit using All Leagues in the RP period data)
AL RP MDD-33 WR35% ELS15.9 Y+4.09% MDDE Colossus 01 Home Dog V1
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/6409 (Colossus 01 Home Dog)
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-33 WR37% ELS14.9 Y+6.57% MDDE Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 (I choose this V2 version, better ROI)
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1177204 (2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues)
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-40 WR29% ELS23 Y+8.13% MDDE A 8
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1270222
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-41 WR30% ELS22 Y+8.83% MDDE A 9
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1270227
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-61 WR29% ELS25 Y+4.25% MDDE Big vs Good – Top Leagues
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/16905
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412163
AL RP MDD-123 WR33% ELS24 Y+1.16 MDDE Empate Equipos igualados
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/924392
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412173
AL RP MDD-118 WR31% ELS23 Y+4.29 MDDE Golden6.6 – Draws are in late 2.0
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/641160
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412175
AL RP MDD-56 WR33% ELS23 Y+4.99% MDDE Missing Draws – Top Leagues
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/19890
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412181
AL RP MDD-53 WR33% ELS22 Y+7.28% MDDE No Draws Medium Streak
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/595299
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412183
AL RP MDD-123 WR32% ELS21 Y+5.09% MDDE No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/17404
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and then add leagues to keep the MDD under 21.
AL RP MDD-142 WR33% ELS28 Y+3.03% MDDE nul x a
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1014450
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412186
.
AL RP MDD-114 WR50% ELS13 Y+0.69% MDDE OVER 2.
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/949913
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412195
Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04), Pro6 Against the Trend Overs v2 (Updated 2020-07-15) and Funger Overs BfBM have exactly the same filters as OVER 2., just the leagues were different, so no updated special version is needed since it would 100% overlap with this strategy.
AL RP MDD-42 WR33% ELS20 Y+8.11% MDDE ZA101
The AL RP results of this strategy are amazing. But I will go for the MDDE version.
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1273739
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-59 WR35% ELS22 Y+3.55% MDDE Contend UD Odds Home Win (1): 1.00 – 10.00
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/205916
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412167
AL RP MDD-56 WR34% ELS23.9 Y+3.57% MDDE Vitória do mandante com dos alta (Con UD) Odds Home Win (1): 1.80-8.30
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/614535
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412215
Both this version and the original look very good. I am not sure which one to follow. The original has 2 more picks per month, so I will choose that one.
AL RP MDD-32 WR56% ELS12 Y+1.32% MDDE TOM WHITAKER HD4 Very Poor Home part 1 (Con UD) Contend UD Odds Home Win (1): 1.00 – 2.00
This Strategy 100% overlaps with Contend UD. So I will not follow it.
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/735806
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
AL RP MDD-106 WR24% ELS31 Y+3.86% MDDE We can win (Con UD) Contend UD Odds Home Win (1): 3.00 – 99.00
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/992704
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412210
Since this overlaps with Contend UD, I think a separate 10-99 odds version needs to be made.
AL RP MDD-182 WR4% ELS145 Y-45.33% MDDE Contend UD V4 Higher Odds Odds Home Win (1): 10.01 – 99.00
Original Strategy: none
MDDE version: none
Since this strategy has -45.33% yield in AL RP I will not use it. The 1-10 odds version of Contend UD seems best to me.
AL RP MDD-52 WR37% ELS20.9 Y+3.78% MDDE Contend UD 1.3
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1304992
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412213
The original Contend UD has a better AL RP yield %, so I will stick with the original version.
AL RP MDD-87 WR24% ELS31 Y+2.52% MDDE Tipstar 103 Home Wins
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1275253
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and add leagues with the MDDE method.
The AL RP data looks good so I will add this strategy into my set.
B-Rank
(Strategy filters did not make profit using All Leagues in the RP period data. But this does not rule these strategies out as being able to make profit in the future with MDDE filtering.)
AL RP MDD-505 WR32% ELS25 Y-3.24% MDDE AH +0 Away
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1131441
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412160
The -505 MDD on the All Leagues data worries me and I think I will drop this one.
AL RP MDD-256 WR74% ELS7.55 Y-0.79% MDDE BANKER??
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/953067
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 5% yield per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
The -256 MDD on the All Leagues data worries me, especially for a strategy with an ELS of 8 and I think I will drop this one.
AL RP MDD-132 WR30% ELS24 Y-0.53% MDDE championnat nul d6
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/950516
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412165
AL RP MDD-227 WR42% ELS16 Y-3.16% MDDE e2
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/11086
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412170
The -227 MDD on the All Leagues data worries me and I think I will drop this one.
AL RP MDD-573 WR39% ELS20 Y-2.73% MDDE Losers Find Win
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/11086
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412177
The -573 MDD on the All Leagues data worries me and I think I will drop this one.
AL RP MDD-64 WR50% ELS-13 Y-0.80% MDDE M2 B +
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/453326
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412179
AL RP MDD-244 WR53% ELS12 Y-3.52% MDDE Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1)
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/138773
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412197
AL RP MDD-511 WR30% ELS28 Y-1.12% MDDE Tipstar 203 Away Wins
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1275260
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412199
AL RP MDD-97 WR51% ELS12 Y-0.61% MDDE UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/12914
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412201
The AL RP yield of -0.61%, while being negative, is clear indication that this trend is beating the standard -3.5%-4% range that Pinnacle odds usually achieve.
AL RP MDD-94 WR74% ELS7 Y-0.33% MDDE TW ProHome V3 BFBM (Pro H)
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1380046
MDDE version: This strategy has less than 5% yield per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more.
The AL RP yield of -0.33%, while being negative, is clear indication that this trend is beating the standard -3.5%-4% range that Pinnacle odds usually achieve. But the AL MDD/ELS ratio of 13.43 is over 10, so I don’t want to follow this one.
AL RP MDD-178 WR42% ELS16.9 Y-3.44% MDDE TOM WHITAKER BSG 11 Home Chance
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/619693
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412206
The -178 MDD on the All Leagues data worries me and I think I will drop this one.
The -3.44% yield on the All Leagues data also worries me that there is no real trend here.
AL RP MDD-385 WR30% ELS30.9 Y-0.43% MDDE TW Score Draw (Dr BT)
Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/760386
MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412208
Draw, both teams scored and TW Score Draw have exactly the same filters, just the league selections were different, so no separate special MDDE versions are needed for each, just one is fine.
Updated Strategy Selection
From the above strategy research, I have selected 16 strategies.
I have ordered them from lowest MDD drawdown. This is my new measure of possible volatility.
I have avoided strategies with AL MDDs of over 200 or have AL MDD/ELS ratios over 10.
Where there are multiple variations of one strategy, I have chosen only one.
Altogether, if we use level stakes and work on the premise that we will achieve an average of 20% the MDD monthly profit levels, then these 16 strategies aim for +8.22 points profit per month.
This profit target includes the expectation that 75% of strategies will make profit and 25% will make a loss.
The expected MDD is based on an extremely conservative the worst case scenario of the MDD being 150% of the AL MDD. (Note that the average MDD was 50% of the AL MDD with a range of 8% to 135%.)
Based on these +8% per month profit target estimates, how do profit target and bank calculations look?
If I have a 2,000 starting bank, it aims for +164 profit per month.
If I have a 5,000 starting bank, it aims for +411 profit per month.
If I want to aim for +1,000 profit per month, then I would need a 12,000 bank.
(If you use Whitaker Staking, then just allot that level stakes bank to Whitaker Staking and it should be more efficient in my opinion,
but I do not have an easy way to calculate the expected profit if Whitaker Staking is used yet. That will need a fresh round of research where I isolate, download and stake analyse each strategy’s TP data results.)
New MDDE League Filtering Method Strategy Links
# | Strategy | MDDE Strategy Links |
1 | MDDE Colossus 01 Home Dog V1 | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/6409 (Colossus 01 Home Dog) MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more. |
2 | MDDE A 8 | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1270222 MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more. |
3 | MDDE A 9 | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1270227 MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more. |
4 | MDDE ZA101 | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1273739 MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and uses all leagues with P/L of 1 or more. |
5 | MDDE No Draws Medium Streak | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/595299 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412183 |
6 | MDDE Missing Draws – Top Leagues | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/19890 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412181 |
7 | MDDE Contend UD | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/205916 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412167 |
8 | MDDE Big vs Good – Top Leagues | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/16905 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412163 |
9 | MDDE M2 B + | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/453326 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412179 |
10 | MDDE Tipstar 103 Home Wins | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1275253 MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and add leagues with the MDDE method. |
11 | MDDE UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/12914 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412201 |
12 | MDDE OVER 2. | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/949913 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412195 |
13 | MDDE Golden6.6 – Draws are in late 2.0 | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/641160 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412175 |
14 | MDDE Empate Equipos igualados | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/924392 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412173 |
15 | MDDE No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/17404 MDDE version: This strategy has less than 11 picks per month so it cannot be shared on the public page. You will need duplicate it from the Public Strategies page to re-engineering it on your “My Strategies” page if you want to follow it. It uses the same filters as the original version and then add leagues to keep the MDD under 21. |
16 | MDDE nul x a | Original Strategy: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1014450 MDDE version: https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1412186 |
These 16 strategies have an average of 248 picks per month.
From the +45.79 points per month average, I hope for 50% of that (+23) and plan on 20% (+9).
From my research, I ignore the MDD here and look at the individual strategy AL MDDs to guide my bank management.
Bot Set
Next, the bots.
This time, I want to aim for simplicity.
18 bots for 18 strategies.
I will make a Level Stakes set with 100 point banks based on a 2,000 starting bank. Each bot will have different stakes based on the strategy estimated Maximum Drawdown.
I will also make a Whitaker Staking set based on a 2,000 bank.
You can choose the set you want.
Market Conditions will be 115%/3-ticks/30m. This level is to balance getting valid prices with also getting bets on. (Too strict risks missing out on the trend and too loose means betting before the market has matured.)
The set is made with the strategy names as printed above. If you use different names when you create your own private strategies, then you will need to make sure those names are reflected in the bot Market Conditions rule “Bet only on markets for which tips are imported.”
If you want a set, you can ask me for one or download it:
2025-05-09 BDDE WNLC 200 GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE WNLC 10k GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE WNLC 2k GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE Level Stakes MDD adjusted 200 GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE Level Stakes MDD adjusted 2k GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE Level Stakes MDD adjusted 10k GBP bank x16 bots
2025-05-09 BDDE Flat 100 GBP level stakes x16 bots
Conclusion
Once again, my conclusions from this massive research project are:
- Betting strategies based on backtesting with historical data does work if we avoid overfitting/data mining and have a staking plan to get through natural variance and volatility.
- Filter leagues by MDDE method or Y1%.
- Always exclude loss making leagues.
- For unit bank planning, calculate the estimated MDD as maximum 150% of the All Leagues MDD. (Average MDD is 50% of the AL MDD. The range is from 8% to 135% ) Or use Whitaker Staking ELSx10.
- Aim for monthly profit of 50% of the MDDE RP levels, but plan for 20%. (The range is from -50% to +90% of the MDDE RP monthly profit levels.)
- Each MDDE strategy has a 75% chance of making profit