Dear all,
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +130% increase on the bank in the last month
2. Detailed results and screenshots
Betting System Results
+130% increase on bank in the last month
+130% increase on the bank in the last month excluding costs.
+£2,406 increase on a £2,000 starting bank including £218 costs from October 17th to November 18th.
Since I started sharing my results from July 2023, the profit after expenses is now up to £7,000. Not bad.
System performance
The BSG Draw system had the best results, and Contend UD also had another strong month. The LowDrawdowns set of 9 had a poor month and I finally dropped one of the worst performing strategies from that set, Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields and replaced it with Big vs Good – Top Leagues.
How did each system do from October 17th to November 18th 2024?
Each month, different systems are winning and losing, so spreading risk by following multiple systems is important.
Planning for the next month – Don’t forget to withdraw profits!
With the bank on +£2,600 and the starting bank being £2,000, then the total bank that Whitaker LC staking is currently using to calculate stakes is £4,600. That is great, but I know that Whitaker LC staking risks the entire bank all the time and could easily drop 50% in the next month and spend the next few months trying to recover from that. I want to profit take after such a great month. A big mistake that winning bettors make is being too greedy, so if you have not have taken profit for a while and you have a strong month, then make sure you take out enough to cover costs and your starting banks for the year so you can play with just your winnings and reduce your risk for the year to zero.
I also want to make things easier for me in terms of record keeping and make it easier to judge monthly profit upper and lower limits.
For the next month, I am going to split the bank into 2 x £1,000 banks.
Bank 1 will be £1,000 with Whitaker LC staking. This bank I will let run in the hope that a few good months in a row take it to very high levels. It will always base the % stake on the current balance, so for odds of 2.00, it will bet 2.5% of the 1k bank, but if the bank grows to 4k, then it will be 2.5% of that 4k. You risk more for more gain.
Bank 2 will be £1,000 with Whitaker NLC staking. This bot set will be reset each month (But the “Overall P/L column” gives me the total long term P/L, too. Then I can know exactly how each system performs in a comparable way each month. Also, if there is a losing month or two, the NLC set will hedge against that damaging the combined bank too much. A good way to think of Whitaker NLC Staking is “smart level stakes”. It will always base the % stake on the starting bank, so for odds of 2.00, it will bet 2.5% of the 1k bank, and even if the bank grows to 4k, then it will still bet 2.5% of the 1k starting bank. Once you have been running for a few months and are in profit, then it is less likely that you could lose 50% of your bank in one month since it now has a lot of buffer profit to get through and the Whitaker ELS4-1000 settings mean that even in the absolute worse case scenario, it may lose 1k but not the entire bank including profits.
Recommendations
If you are not following Betaminic strategies already, then I really recommend getting into them.
#1 Follow the BSG Draw System. It is free for the first month.
#2 Follow the BSG16 lay strategy. It has had some great results and works well with the lay version of Whitaker Staking In this case we are trying to join the bookies, not beat them.
#3 Follow the 9 Low Drawdown strategies I follow. They seem like a solid system and can help balance out the system when BSG draws has a bad month.
#4 Follow Contend UD. Love it or hate it, this strategy has good results if followed long term, despite its volatility.
2, 3 & 4 can be run easily with manual betting since they don’t have a high volume of bets.
If you have Betfair, then you can automate them on Betfair. Otherwise, you can bet manually on any sportsbook.
Detailed Results
Bot Set Screenshots: Whitaker Staking Set
September 18th to October 17th 2024
P/L +427.83
(£1,094.77-£666.94 adjustment)
I tidied up my bot set by removing some stopped strategies, this meant that -£666 was missing from the total. I make that adjustment above.
October 18th to November 18th 2024
P/L +2,624.95
(Starting bank £2,000 on Oct 17th)
This was how my bot set look on October 17th. I then edited it, reset it with a 2k bank and ran it again. After a few days the tennis bets kept performing badly, so I dropped them and replaced them with the BSG16 lay strategy bot on Oct 22nd.
I merged the 9 Low Drawdown bots into one bot in order to reduce strain on my computing resources and allow me to run more bots. So those 9 strategies are combined into one bot. It does make it harder to see in this screenshot which one is underperforming but I have other tracking bots for that.
Single System Screenshots of Tracker Sets
BSG Draw System
This Whitaker LC set is from Oct 1st to Nov 18th and shows a +71% increase on a 1k bank.
This Whitaker NLC set is from Oct 1st to Nov 18th and shows a +67% increase on a 1k bank.
This Whitaker LC set is from Nov 1st to Nov 18th and shows a +22% increase on a 1k bank.
The original test bots for the BSG1 (bsgZeroZero) trend show the in-play draw bets are now making a loss, which is surprising. The pre-match draw bet A2 has dropped from 3% ROI in 2023 to 1.6% now after 13,199 bets since Oct 28th 2022. It does make me wonder if we affected the market and squeezed out some Betfair bots or traders. The 0-0 FT A6 bot still has an 11% ROI after 3,000 bets which is fantastic and backs up that this trend is working and is expressed strongest in the unpopular 0-0 FT bet. The 0-0 HT A7.1 bot shows 3.9% ROI after 1,654 bets, but the higher 39% win rate is what keeps me following this one.
These are test bots from the BSG2 trend (bsg2ZeroZero). It is interesting that this pre-match A2 draw bet trend just comes close to breaking even after 1,547 bets but its 0-0 FT A6 bot bets make a massive 21% ROI after 2,057 bets since July 23rd 2024, which is crazy. To reduce strain on my VPS I had turned off the A2 bot at times in the past which is why it has fewer bets than the A6 bot. A big thing to notice is that the BSG2 A6 21% ROI is achieved from a 9.49% win rate, but the BSG1 A6 11% ROI is achieved from a 13.33% win rate. It just goes to show that win rate is not the important thing, it is the value of the odds of that trend. So it seems the market is really getting these odds wrong, or this 0-0 FT bet is really unpopular. I think it may be the latter and the odds in the market just reflect that. |
The long term test results are strong and whitaker staking is making the best use of them.
Low Drawdown Set of 9
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 50 unit bank (5k bank) from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
You can see the -15 and -1 unit losses.
These Whitaker LC Staking bots bet with a 5k bank from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
You can see the -31% and -2% bank losses.
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 50 unit bank (5k bank) from Jan 18th 2024.
You can see the results of each strategy from the set and also the now removed Away weak favourite strategy at the bottom.
E2 and Over 2. Have been performing the best this year on level stakes, but Whitaker staking has made Banker??? the highest profiting in my other bot sets since it gets more out of the low odds value selections it finds.
Contend UD
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 80 unit bank (8k bank) from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
You can see the +18 and +35 unit profits.
These Whitaker LC Staking bots bet with a 8k bank from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
You can see the +58% and +28% bank profits.
This £100 Level Stakes bot bets with a 80 unit bank (8k bank) from Jan 18th 2024. It has made +38 units profit so far this year. Very nice but I would not like to rely on just one strategy. It is better to follow multiple systems to spread risk. |
BSG16 lay strategy
The original bots I was following the lay system with have hit 257 bets.
The Whitaker NLC bot has 28.5% ROI.
The Whitaker LC bot has 31.5% ROI.
But is important to note that this is with a 77% win rate which is higher than the Betaminic strategy trend rate of 73%. So we have been “lucky” this month with this strategy which explains the 31% ROI.
I have also been trying other Betaminic triggered lay bots, but there is nothing to report yet.
One very interesting thing which I have known from previous tests and is reconfirmed here is that when creating autonomous bots in BFBM with the same filters as the Betaminic strategies, they never get the same selections or results! The results on the left are my attempt to create a bot with the same filters as the BSG 16 lay strategy, but you can see it gets much worse results in a month when BSG16 got 31% ROI! I have found the same is true for other Betaminic strategies. If you simply copy the filters into a BFBM bot, it will not work. The reason is that the Betaminic picks are based on Pinnacle opening odds which are based on consistent market models that the Pinnacle prices come from. Betfair prices near KO are an aggregation of the market sentiment and each market has different actors placing bets in it, which leads to almost no consistency, especially in lower liquidity markets.
Tennis Bets
These £100 Level Stakes bots bet with a 25 unit bank (2.5k bank) from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
In November, the TennisBets have managed to make levels takes profit so far.
These Whitaker LC Staking bots bet with a 2.5k bank from Oct 1st and Nov 1st respectively.
You can see the -20% and -1% bank losses.
This Whitaker LC Staking bot bet with a 2k bank from Oct 17th, but was removed from my recommended set on Oct 22nd.
This £100 Level Stakes bot bets with a 25 unit bank (2.5k bank) from May 15th 2024.
It has made +9.9 units profit so far, even after the big losses last month.
My confidence in my method of using the tennis statistics has gone done a bit but one thing that I should point out strongly is that the large losses came when I backed the favourites in all the rounds in the Osaka WTA that only had ONE tournament worth of data to back up that trend. So it was my over-eagerness/greediness to get selections on TippingSports that led me to use selections that did not have that much data behind them to support their trends.
As I said, there is definitely value to be found in using these tennis statistics correctly, but I will be trying to only use tournaments where there are 4 or more tournaments worth of data behind them.
Users’ Mixed Set Trackers
When possible, I try to track the results of some of my followers in their first weeks to see if we get similar results.
This user’s set started on Nov 7th with a £400 bank using all 4 systems with Whitaker LC staking.
+50% so far and looking good.
This user’s set started on Nov 17th with a £1,000 bank using 2 of the systems Whitaker LC staking.
-13.8% after day 1, but still early days.
This user’s set started on Oct 17th with a £2,000 bank using all 4 of the systems but using level stakes with each bot getting a ELSx4-1000 level stakes bank, except for the lay bot which uses Whitaker NLC staking.
+£2,702 so far and looking good.
This user’s set started on Oct 27th with a £1,000 bank using 2.5 of the systems with Whitaker NLC staking. (Only some of the LD9 strategies were included)
+£331 so far and looking good.
I wanted to share these bot sets to show that you do not have to do exactly the same thing as me. You can just choose the systems that you like the look of and also the staking plans that make sense to you. Each of the users above have made their own decisions on how to use the data available. I helped them set it up on the BFBM and then track it to compare notes if I am following similar strategies. I bought a new simulation desktop PC with 8 GB of RAM instead of 4 GB and also an i5 core instead of an i3 core and I have noticed a big improvement in my BFBM’s ability to handle 200 bots run in simulation mode which has enabled me to track more users’ sets until we are happy they are working fine. If you also want help setting up bots on your BFBM, please let me know at BettingSystemsGuide@gmail.com .
Latest Updates
You can get the latest information, as questions and interact with other uses in this Reddit community.
Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
Support
If you want more details on the systems or want to start, then please look at my start up guide PDF.
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/start-now/
Best regards,
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 My YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PR_cqotGb8
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
4 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing BetInAsia or AsianConnect.
5 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
6 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.