Dear all,
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +£215 in the last month after costs / New bot set up 25% in 2 weeks
2 System Changes – Change to Whitaker Staking
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
UPDATES
For more frequent updates than this monthly newsletter, I post comments, updates and articles on the Reddit community and on my BSG website blog. If you are following any of my systems, I highly recommend you join that Reddit community.
Read this month’s newsletter on my website or download the PDF .
Best Regards,
Tom
1 Betting System results +£215 in the last month after costs / New bot set up 25% in 2 weeks
Old Bot Set
+£21 net profit in the last month from the 6 systems after costs have been taken into account.
New Bot Set
My new bot set with Whitaker Staking is already 25% up after 2 weeks.
Did it win or lose last month?
In terms of betting volume, there were fewer bets this month, but the system made some profit even after costs
+4,632 after 13 months is a decent result.
But I am going to make some big changes to the system’s staking plan and bank management this month.
How did each system do?
BM tennis did best this month with +£623 from +6.23 units profit on £100 stakes. (My tennis picks based on Betaminic’s Tennis Statistics database)
BM LD4 made +£234 from +2.34 units profit on £100 stakes. (Betaminic’s choice of 4 low drawdown strategies from Betaminic’s Betamin Builder database)
BM LD9 made +£96 from +0.96 units profit on £100 stakes. (My choice of 9 low drawdown strategies from Betaminic’s Betamin Builder database)
BM Draws made a loss of -£46 from -2.3 units profit on £20 stakes. (My choice of 13 daw strategies from Betaminic’s Betamin Builder database in my 5-bot system)
BM ContendUD made a loss of -£100 from -1 units profit on £100 stakes. (My choice of 1 profit focus strategy from Betaminic’s Betamin Builder database)
BSG Draws made a loss of -£463 from -46.3 units profit on £10 stakes. (My own original draw selections from my BFBM 6-bot system.)
The Betaminic Draws system remains the best in my opinion since its actual results are the closest to the backtested results. It has achieved 59% of the expected profit levels for me over the last 8 months.
2 System Changes – Change to Whitaker Staking
As I explained in the mid-month news update, (PDF link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12k5M5EPdRf2KluuhEMCfRPlPLLZTVXbj/view?usp=sharing), I am making a change from level stakes back to Whitaker Staking. From my new understanding of statistical independence, I can put all the bots into a single, shared bank with Whitaker Staking. This bot set links stake size calculations to the current bank balance (“LC” or “Linked to Cumulative”). In that previous newsletter, I suggested just following the BSG A1 Bot since it has the best ROI, but in the end, I feel that splitting my stake among all 6 bots will spread risk and guard against one expression of the trend having a bad run. The A1 bot has lots of unmatched/lapsed bets and I think my personal style of betting prefers to split the stake and follow all 6 bots. Time will tell how wise that is. So to confirm, I am still following all 6 bots of the BSG set, and also all 5 bots of the Betaminic Draw set. But you can make your own choice about follow just one, a few or all of them.
If bots are betting on the same outcome of the same event, their stake is divided by the number of bots betting on it.
So, the BSG draw bot set of 6 bots has its stakes divided by 6.
And, the Betaminic draw bot set of 5 bots has its stakes divided by 5.
The other bots bet on separate events so they use normal Whitaker Staking levels.
The Whitaker Staking sizes are based on the ELSx4 of EACH odds level. (ELSx4 = Expected Losing Sequence multiplied by four over a 1,000 bet period.)
An Excel file with a table of the stake % for each odds level for Whitaker Staking can be downloaded here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1233CVt7FDuHVhB49rwsw6sacx8XJdeTu/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105479355645322150932&rtpof=true&sd=true
This Bf Bot Manager bot set of 22 bots can be downloaded here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MwiP0dfcee-esNqmDulUj2uFeQB6luMD/view?usp=sharing
The 13 bot set with only the BSG draw A1 bot and BM draw A3 bot is here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PBSMHmjda7Kd1cNt_RI358CYFhcWUT01/view?usp=sharing
I am also having these bets sent to ApostasBF which always has more liquidity and sometimes better prices. This is important for the small leagues and minor matches.
You can follow my BSG draws and Tennis bets there for free, and also, if you ask Betaminic, you can pay a subscription to follow Betaminic strategies on there.
This video shows the big differences in liquidity and is also a setup guide for how to use my bots in ApostasBF. https://youtu.be/KXqCnLIdhPo
The below image shows how even in minor horse races it has x5 times as much money available on the favourite.
Tracking
On ApostasBF I have a 4k bank running. This is my main betting bank.
I have set up a 1k bank in Bf Bot Manager to track and how a 1,000 GBP bank performs.
I will also run the same set on 0.10 GBP level stakes in BF Bot Manager to track level stakes ROI.
I know people will want to know the individual performance of systems, so I will set up some separate bot sets to track each system if they ran independently.
So in future I will be showing my results, but also trying to show how the systems perform individually and also on level stakes.
Staking
Whitaker Staking (LC). I recommend running all the systems on a shared bank with Whitaker Staking (LC). As the bank gets bigger, it will bet more, which means more profit chance. BUT if your bank grows from 1k to 10k, the entire 10k will still be at risk if a massive losing run comes. A 50% drop of a 1k bank is not so bad, but a 50% drop of a 10k bank could give some people a heart attack. With Whitaker Staking (LC) I would recommend having profit withdrawal targets where you take out a chunk and reset the bank to a lower level. For example, when the bank triples, then withdraw 33% and let it try and repeat the cycle.
Other options are:
Whitaker Staking (NLC) Running all the systems on a shared bank with Whitaker Staking (NLC) where you base all stake % on the starting bank and do not increase or decrease in line with the bank balance. This means that after your bank achieves certain higher levels, there is less chance of it being destroyed by a losing run. For example, when a -50% run comes, it will be a -50% of the starting bank levels and not the current bank levels. So if your bank went from 1k to 10k, a 50% bank drop would only be -500 and not -5,000. But it will take the Whitaker NLC bank a lot longer to reach 10k than with Whitaker LC staking. Less risk for less reward, but fewer heart attack moments.
Level Whitaker Staking (LC or NLC) In this case you can look at the average win rate and calculate an average stake to apply to all bets for that strategy. For example, if you are manual betting and do not want to check the Whitaker Staking table each time you place a bet, you could just find the average win rate of the TennisBets, which is 70%, and then see the Whitaker Staking recommends staking 4.41% of the bank on each bet. Then you can round that to 4.5% and place that amount on every bet. In this case the stake % does not change for each bet but is applied to all bets. This is basically the equivalent of looking at the ELSx4 of the win rate to calculate the required unit bank size for potential drawdowns and then making a 100 point bank for that. (In the last example, a 70% win rate has an ELSx4 of -22.68 units. With a 22.68 unit bank converted to a 100 point bank, then you can stake 4.41 points on each bet. That can be based on the starting bank (NLC) or based on the current bank balance (LC).
The key point in Whitaker staking is that we are looking at the win rate or odds implied win rate to find the ELSx4, and to then calculate the estimated unit bank needed to survive expected drawdowns, and that bank size is used to calculate the stake for that odds level. In super simple terms, stake more on low odds and stake less on high odds.
Targets
With Whitaker LC, the monthly targets will depend on cumulative bank size and which systems are being used together, so instead I will calculate my targets with Level Whitaker Staking where I use the average win rate and apply a single point value to bets. I feel this is more likely to give a better feel for the average profits that might be aimed for. My own results will likely be dependent on the luck of the fixture list and where my winning and losing periods come. But the longer people follow the systems, the mor likely they are to achieve similar results to me and similar results to the long term trend.
Profit Targets
The target profits for BSG Draws, BM Draws and TennisBets are based on their actual results. The target profits for BM LD9 and BM ContendUD are based on backtesting with 12 years of historical data. The resulting +84 points per month is very ambitious and it remains to be seen if the strategies can really deliver this over the coming months. But if I get half of those target +84 profits, I will be pleased. The TennisBets target is very high and that makes me worried that these results are just luck. We only have 200 bets worth of real results, so I don’t put too much faith in that number yet. But it is nice while it lasts.
Monthly Subscriptions
Discounts are available for longer subscriptions. Big data betting needs a long term betting mentality, so it is best to plan to follow a system for one year and to reduce monthly costs by getting a 12-month subscription for it. I asked Betaminic what the monthly subscription rates are for people wanting to follow strategies on ApostasBF. If you are using Bf Bot Manager, then following ContendUD and BM LD9 directly through the Betamin Builder will be cheaper, but BetaminicDraw will be cheaper via subscription since it has lots of duplicates in the 13 draw strategies it uses. I have also decided to offer a discount for long term subscriptions of BSG Draws for BFBM users. The first month is free.
For ApostasBF and Bf Bot Manager Users
ContendUD | BM LD9 Low Drawdown Set |
1 month subscription – 27 EUR 3 month subscription – 73 EUR (10% discount: 24.3 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 130 EUR (20% discount: 21.6 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 227 EUR (30% discount: 18.9 EUR per month) | 1 month subscription – 70 EUR 3 month subscription – 189 EUR (10% discount: 63 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 336 EUR (20% discount: 56 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 588 EUR (30% discount: 49 EUR per month) |
BM Draws System |
|
1 month subscription – 200 EUR per month 3 month subscription – 540 EUR (10% discount: 180 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 960 EUR (20% discount: 160 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 1,680 EUR (30% discount: 140 EUR per month) |
For Bf Bot Manager Users
Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair (ApostasBF is free) | BSG Draws System (Free via ApostasBF) |
1 month subscription – 100 GBP 3 month subscription – 270 GBP (10% discount: 90 GBP per month) 6 month subscription – 480 GBP (20% discount: 80 GBP per month) 12 month subscription – 840 GBP (30% discount: 70 GBP per month) | 1 month subscription – 100 GBP (First month free) 3 month subscription – 270 GBP (10% discount: 90 GBP per month) 6 month subscription – 480 GBP (20% discount: 80 GBP per month) 12 month subscription – 840 GBP (30% discount: 70 GBP per month) |
VPS for BfBM users (VPS not necessary for ApostasBF) SimplyHosting SSD-2 | IPT Data Feed for BfBM users (IPT not necessary for ApostasBF) |
1 month subscription – 21.60 GBP 12 month subscription – 233.28 GBP (10% discount: 19.44 GBP per month) | 1 day subscription – 1 GBP 12 month subscription – 239 GBP (45% discount: 20 GBP per month) Season 2024/25 subscription until June 1st 2025 – 199 GBP (45% discount: 20 GBP per month) |
The VPS and IPT data feed are optional for BFBM users, but once people get serious, they often use these.
Start Up and Monthly Costs
This table gives you an idea of minimum bank levels to cover costs and also the profit targets. The monthly costs are based on getting the longest 12-month subscriptions to get the cheapest monthly costs. I also write the start-up costs involved for a 1 year plan.
(*If you just want to bet level stakes, you can use TippingSports Automated Service for £60 for 12 months.)
The TennisBets option looks good because it is free now, but we don’t know when Betaminic will start charging for it.
Basically, I recommend starting out with the TennisBets while it is still free to build up your bank, and then to spread risk by adding in the other betting systems. Following more betting systems will reduce the effects of one system’s negative variance. As they say, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
I am now following 5 Betting Systems.
System 1: The BSG Draw System (An Automated betting system that bets pre-match and in-play)
System 2: Betaminic Draw Strategies (An Automated betting system that bets pre-match and in-play)
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9” (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
System 4: Contend UD (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
System 5: Tom’s BM Tennis System (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
I am using the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software to automate betting on these systems on Betfair.com and ApostasBF.
I am also using IPT In Play Trading data feed for Bf Bot Manger to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores.
I am also using ApostasBF and its free ATZbet tool as a non-Betfair.com way to get more liquidity and to avoid the Betfair 20% Premium Charge and deposit limits.
I am also using TippingSports to add manual tips that get sent to my BFBM bots and also as a way to track the performance of Betaminic Multi-Strategy Systems and my BSG Draw System core trend.
See my website for more details on how to set them up:
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/betting-systems/
Email me if you want to use any of my bot sets.
System 1: Tom’s BSG Draw System
Follow in 2 ways:
Method 1: Subscription
BSG Draws System Subscription (Free via ApostasBF) |
1 month subscription – 100 GBP (First month free) 3 month subscription – 270 GBP (10% discount: 90 GBP per month) 6 month subscription – 480 GBP (20% discount: 80 GBP per month) 12 month subscription – 840 GBP (30% discount: 70 GBP per month) |
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription and Betfair account)
(Optional: Some people also get the IPT In Play Trading data feed for Bf Bot Manger to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores for £20 per month.)
Method 2: No Subscription
Free if you bet using the ApostasBF betting exchange.
(You must sign up via my referral link https://apostasbf.com/exchange/?affid=NTyIvc or you will still need a BSG Draw subscription.)
System 2: Tom’s Betaminic Draw System
1 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
2 | championnat nul d6 | |
3 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
4 | Draw / Strategie / 3 TomV2 | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | draw-robman-S1 | |
7 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
8 | empate nos unders | |
9 | Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL | |
10 | Golden6.6 – Draws are in late 2.0 | |
11 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
12 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
13 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 |
Follow in 2 ways:
1 Subscription
BM Draws System Subscription through TippingSports.com |
1 month subscription – 200 EUR per month 3 month subscription – 540 EUR (10% discount: 180 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 960 EUR (20% discount: 160 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 1,680 EUR (30% discount: 140 EUR per month) |
Costs: 140 EUR (120 GBP) per month BetaminicDraw Subscription (Cheaper and simpler than following directly through Betaminic)
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription)
2 Pay-per-pick
Through Betaminic.com
Costs: Depends on how many draw strategies you follow and which pick package you buy.
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription)
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
1 | 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | |
2 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
3 | BANKER?? | |
4 | e2 | |
5 | OVER 2. | |
6 | Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | |
7 | TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites | |
8 | UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJ | |
9 | x 4 + |
2024 LD9 System: 50-point bank
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 100 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -10 points monthly average so far / 12-year -32.33 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 114 Betaminic picks per month average costs £58 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £98 per month with the 100 pick packages.
BM LD9 Low Drawdown Set Subscription through TippingSports.com |
1 month subscription – 70 EUR 3 month subscription – 189 EUR (10% discount: 63 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 336 EUR (20% discount: 56 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 588 EUR (30% discount: 49 EUR per month) |
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
1 | Contend UD |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 3.6 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 36 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -8 points monthly average so far / 12-year -34.12 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 27 Betaminic picks per month average costs £14 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £23 per month with the 100 pick packages.
ContendUD Subscription through TippingSports.com |
1 month subscription – 27 EUR 3 month subscription – 73 EUR (10% discount: 24.3 EUR per month) 6 month subscription – 130 EUR (20% discount: 21.6 EUR per month) 12 month subscription – 227 EUR (30% discount: 18.9 EUR per month) |
System 5: Tom’s Betaminic Tennis System
1 | TennisBets |
These tips are made using the Betaminic Tennis Statistics page.
https://www.betaminic.com/statistics-tennis/
Betaminic have a statistics page for tennis. It uses tennis ATP/WTA statistics AND historical sportsbook odds since 2014 in the Betamin Builder style to show what betting strategies worked historically for tennis. For example, it shows that backing the favorite in specific rounds of specific tournaments generated a profit over the last 10 years. It also shows backing which players leads to positive yields. For now, the page is free to view. You just need to register for Betaminic (free). http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW
I made a video on how to use the statistics page here: https://youtu.be/T95uMgfbeXo?si=ltv3lqsbjN5Zy5_1
You can see the ATP/WTA calendar here https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments
Then you can check if betting on the fav or dog in any particular rounds generates a profit for upcoming events.
Since the stats are free for now, I am posting my tips for free here. They get sent to my Bf Bot Manager software and also ApostasBF for automated betting.
They are not Betaminic endorsed tips, they are just my idea of how to use those stats. Tips will be added when I have the time.
Bank: 22-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 31 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 372 points after 12 months)
Drawdown: -9 points monthly average so far / -40 points Estimated Potential Maximum Drawdown according to ELS x 4.
Exit point: When 22-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: FREE to follow through TippingSports or Betaminic Statistics Page
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Tom
Useful Links:,
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicDraw on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my BetaminicDraw bot set)
6 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicLdsys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
7 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 ApostasBF betting exchange: My BSG Draw System is available to my ApostasBF referrals for FREE! No subscriptions, no downloads, no VPS, just free automated betting.
4 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
5 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
6 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
7 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.
WARNING: Past data DOES NOT guarantee future profits, but it gives a smarter way to plan betting systems than other methods.
Read the material until you understand the strategies. Don’t use systems you don’t understand. Don’t rush into things.
ALL betting systems carry the risk of losing ALL your bank.
Betting is NOT an investment and in no way to be considered a viable “second income” or “retirement income”.
Do not use this or any betting service unless you understand and accept that.
Big data betting is a smarter way to bet, but it is still gambling.