HOW TO REVIEW & UPDATE YOUR BETTING STRATEGIES AFTER A LOSING RUN
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/
1 REVIEW YOUR PLAN
Read your plan again.
What is the profit target? (e.g. x5 of the bank)
What was the accepted risk? (e.g. 17% chance of bankruptcy)
What are your exit/review points? (e.g. bankruptcy or 1000 bets per strategy)
Have you reached an exit point?
Yes? Don’t just refill your bank and start again.
Review you plan and your strategies.
Why did it fail?
Was it the strategies losing value?
Was it software issues?
Was it the bank management?
Was it higher than statistically expected negative variance?
No? Don’t panic after every losing run.
Follow your plan to its exit points.
If you are close to an exit point, then keep going, but start your review as if it has failed.
2 REVIEW YOUR STRATEGIES
You chose these strategies for a reason.
Check bet numbers
How many bets have actually elapsed for the strategy you are using. Is that a fair amount to judge it by?
Check odds
Compare Betaminic prices to yours. Are you getting equal or higher prices to the original strategy?
Check recent results
Look at each one and see if the recent results are a big change from their long term trend.
Duplicate and compare the last year to all previous results.
Has the strategy lost its edge?
Is it betting on the wrong leagues? Then consider updating the strategy league choice.
3 UPDATE YOUR STRATEGIES
If the strategy seems to be betting on the wrong leagues in the past year, it could be a sign the strategy needs updating with the latest data.
But what is the best way to select leagues?
And even when we have a working strategy, and we want to update the leagues included based on the latest data, what is the best way to choose leagues?
These are all methods I have used in the past:
- All Leagues
- Positive Inclusion
- Negative Exclusion
- By yields +1%
- By yields +5%
- By yields +10%
- Original leagues
- Add by Maximum Drawdown (MDD) effect
Choose the one that matches your betting style.
LEAGUE SELECTION METHODS
All Leagues (AL) means including even loss making leagues in a strategy, the idea being that filtering out leagues increases the chances of overfitting. So if a strategy works across all leagues, then it is highly likely that it is a real trend in the market models. But it means lower yields and higher volumes of picks.
Negative Exclusion (NE) means starting with all leagues and only removing leagues that have yields under +5% AND have more than 100 bets in their data set. This means that some loss making leagues are still included since we do not have enough data to prove the trend is not working in those leagues. Again, the idea is that we try to use as many leagues as possible and only remove leagues that have lots of data to prove that the trend does not work well for them.
Positive Inclusion (PI) means starting with no leagues and only adding leagues that have yields over 5% AND have more than 100 bets in their data set. The idea is that we are only following leagues where the profitable trend is strong. But this increases the chance of data mining since we are just “picking the winning leagues” and so pretty much any strategy can be made to look good this way. BUT many top performing Betaminic strategies were created this way initially.
By yields +1%, +5%, +10% (Y1%, Y5%, Y10%) is simply including any leagues with yields above that mark, ignoring how many bets worth of data a league has. The idea being that each time we refresh leagues, we are just keeping those that show any sign of positive yield.
Original Leagues (OL) just keeps the original leagues chosen by the user who first made the strategy. Here we believe that they knew what they were doing when they chose those leagues and stick with them.
Add by Maximum Drawdown Effect (MDDE) adds the top leagues by profit up to a MDD of -10, and then the next profitable leagues are added only if they don’t increase the MDD. So we may sometimes add leagues with lower yields than those excluded because they did not increase MDD. The aim here is to keep volatility as low as possible, and to keep unstable leagues out. We start with the league with highest profit since it is likely to have a good balance of yield vs bet data.
THE BIG REVIEW
I am going to go through the x34 Betaminic back strategies I chose to reconfirm they are the ones I want to follow.
I think these are actually x23 core strategies plus x11 variations on those core strategies.
One reason for following multiple versions with different league or filter selections was because I did not know the best league choice method.
But I want to know, what are the best league selections and how do I keep them up to date with the latest data?
In this review I will use a consistent method to compare these.
I will split the 12 years of historical data into 10 years of Research Period Data and 2.5 years of Test Period Data.
I will then use the Research Period data to filter leagues by each of the above methods and compare results to see which method leads to profit the most in the Test Periods.
It is a bit of a big task, but I will see how far I get.
I will let you know the results when they are ready.
Interested in automated betting?
Visit my website to learn mor about my betting systems https://bettingsystemsguide.com/
Latest results here: https://bettingsystemsguide.com/blog/
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 My YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PR_cqotGb8
5 The perfect staking plan https://bettingsystemsguide.com/staking-plans/
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1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair https://www.bfbotmanager.com/affiliate/364
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3 The Staking Machine staking analysis software https://www.thestakingmachine.com/affiliates/whitaker
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