winning betting strategy

When should we change or stop following a betting strategy?

When to change strategies is a really important question and my answer to that has changed over the years.

The short answer is, choose strategies where you believe the core logic behind them and then follow them for a very long term, for at least 6 months (or at least over 100 bets for each individual strategy), to have a chance of getting the profits we saw in the historical data. We have to stick with them for at least 6 months/100 bets to get through the natural positive and negative variance periods of normal strategies. When you reach 100 bets of a strategy that you choose, then review it and decide if you want to follow it for another 100 bets. I then decide to keep or stop using a strategy if it looks like it is continuing its long term trend or if its results have significantly changed, which suggests a change in the market model. The strategy exceeding its Maximum Drawdown is one statistic I might use to consider stopping a strategy, another is if its positive/negative variance swings have changed to being even to a more consistent negative direction. A betting strategy that does not work is one that is just a constant -4% yield, which is the bookmaker margin working perfectly at Pinnacle. If you make a strategy that just bets on all home wins, you will see this -4% yield. That is how correctly working betting markets should work for bookmakers, so markets that have flat or slightly positive trends are ones that are not working and we can get value bets from.

r/AutomatedBettingBots - When should we change or stop following a betting strategy?

(Data taken from www.betaminic.com )

The above image is how bookmaker markets should work. They get perfect long term profit (-3.45% for bettors) with some positive and negative variance (good and bad runs).

r/AutomatedBettingBots - When should we change or stop following a betting strategy?

(One of the publicly shared strategies on www.betaminic.com’s Betamin Builder Tool)

This image is how we can find a trend that beats the bookmaker, but it is long term and it also has flat and bad runs that we must not give up on, and we also need a staking plan and betting bank management to keep going through the bad runs to make the most of the good runs. I think that is either Whitaker staking or Percentage staking, depending on your system. But another way to look at this strategy is that it identifies a value market, the over x.5 goals markets for this fixture. It does not just give us one value bet. It points us to a market where all the goal related markets will be value and the bookmaker and the general public usually get it wrong. So we can spread risk and get more value out of related goal markets.

A big mistake I made in the past was giving up on strategies after a big losing run or after 2 losing months and then missing their profitable runs and months.

For example, I would look at the top rated strategies in the Betamin Builder and follow the top 10. But those top 10 strategies are at the top of the rankings because they have just had a big positive run. It is like joining a rollercoaster near the top, or buying shares when they are a high price. My strategies would then make profit for a few weeks, but then go negative as they returned to their natural trend line with a period of negative variance. After 2 months of bad results, I would stop using those strategies and pick the new top 10 strategies in the Betamin builder and the same pattern repeated. Then the strategies I gave up on changed from their negative run to a positive run and I missed their good run as those strategies returned to the top of the Betaminic rankings! A good example of this is the Colossus 06 and the Not home on. strategies. Colossus 06 had a flat run in the middle of 2021, it lasted nearly 6 months, but a few months ago it had a big positive run again. It is now on a negative run again now, but it will return to positive results again. Not Home on got to the 100 rating on Betaminic for a while last year, I followed it, and it turned negative, but I did not give up and now it is in a winning run again. This balances with Colossus 06’s losing run now.

Here is my history of using Betaminic:

2017-12 The Colossus 21 set – I picked the top performing strategies based on all their data, only AP (All Period results) and no LP (Live Period/Since created results) because they were all new strategies. The set performed well for 4 months but then most stopped making profit. A few of them are still in profit today. When I refresh those strategies with the latest data, they often show profits again for a while before some of them go flat or negative. A few them keep making profit long term with or without refreshing , but seem to have better results after refreshing with the latest data. This suggests that researching with the freshest data might find a working set that lasts for 1-2 months before needing refreshing again. But some strategies work very long term if you stick with them through bad runs. (7 of the 21 Colossus21 strategies from 2017 are still in profit long term with no data updates: Yield 3%+ Colossus 01, 06, 14; Yield 0-3% Colossus 03, 10, 12, 19)

2018-9 The Proven 8 set – I tried splitting the data to create a Research Period (RP) and a Test Period (TP) with the data. It performed well for 2 months but then slowed and went negative after 11 months. (Only Pro7 is still in profit.)

2019-1 The Best of 2018 set – I tried following the top performing strategies from 2018. Again it worked for 2 months, but then slowed and went negative after 6 months.

2019-7 The Best Betaminic Ratings set – I tried to follow the top 12 strategies by Betaminic rating. This time it went negative immediately, but pulled back up to +54 points profit after 3 months, and then went very volatile between negatives and positives after that with swings of +/-50 points in a month which damaged my betting bank.

2019-10 The Mixed19 Set – I tried using a mix of the long term winners from the Colossus 21, Proven 8 and top Betaminic rated strategies. Again, it went well for 3 months, but went negative after that.

2020 I kept removing poor performers, adding in new winners and had inconsistent results. The time used placing large numbers of bets was getting difficult so I tried to find a way to semi-automate the betting and managed to do it with the Bf Bot Manager. I asked Betaminic if they could create a direct link which they did at the start of 2021.

2021-2 The BDS-54, BDS-44, BDS-36 sets – I tried running as many of the top strategies together with the new automated system. It made profit for 2 months (doubling the bank twice) and then went negative. This suggests that using the freshest data is useful.

2021-4 The BSG-18 customized set – I tried reducing pick costs by editing the strategies to fit together. The BSG-18 set went negative over the next 4 months.

2021-9 The BDS-15 – I used a fresh data snapshot to select the current best performing strategies. I also used staking software (TSM) to analyze historical results and made a customized staking plan. I also improved my bot set and add-on bots. This had great success, going up 90% in the first week, but finishing the month on +28%.

2021-10 The TW-16 – Betaminic increased the amount of leagues in their database from 57 to 111 leagues. I recreated the existing top strategies with the same settings, but using the expanded league selection. This meant that all the top strategies were refreshed with the latest data when filtering leagues. I also increased my bank size to 3,000 in order to cover pick costs but also as part of a plan to move to a monthly style of recording performance. The results were really positive. +60% with Betfair odds and +30% with Pinnacle odds.

2021-11 The TW-10 I reviewed my strategy choices, removed 7 strategies and added 1 new one. Then I re-ran the strategies through staking software and level stakes came up as one of the simplest ways to get good results from the strategies. Its results were -20 points after 18 days, but this was all within the historical variance levels, even though it was disappointing.

2021-11-19 The AT-7 I changed my strategy choice after getting in contact with an ex-bookmaker. The AT-7 focusses on going against the trend to bet on unpopular selections that the bookmaker models and public money push odds up into value levels.

2021-12 Added 2 strategies into my AT-7 Against the Trend set. The new AT-9 had a negative P/L in December but the add-on bots made it flat December.

2022-3 I ran the AT-9 for nearly 4 months and during that time I experimented with new bots that focused on derivative markets. These new bots had really good results. The AT-9 made a loss on level stakes of -29%, but my extra bets, bots and staking plan helped it make a profit of +8%.

2022-4 I started using the new bot set that bet on even more derivative markets with an updated AT-10 set. I removed 2 strategies and added in 3 more. But 2 of the new ones are very similar to the 2 that were removed, they were just slightly better versions in my opinion. So I have still been following the same basic system for over 6 months.

My conclusion from this experience is:

· There are inefficient trends in the bookmaker models that we can take advantage of, but we need good bank management to get through a 6 month period to give it a chance.

· I think there is something that works in the Betaminic system, but I am not consistent at making it work yet.

· I think placing extra bets pre-match on related markets and also in-play can get more value out of Betaminic strategies.

· My gut feeling is to spread risk by following larger numbers of strategies rather than a few strategies.

So you can see from my history that my error was following strategies at the top of the rankings and giving up too soon when they went on a losing run. So now I think it is better to choose strategies you believe in, for me the AT-10 Against the Trend strategies. I will follow them and review them after 6 months (or after 100 bets from a single strategy). I also think that placing extra pre-match bets on related markets can help a lot.

Do you bet manually or with the BF Bot Manager automated betting software on Betfair?
 
At the moment I am following these 10 strategies: (I list them in order of my confidence in them.)
 
All of these strategies follow an “Against the Trend” style of betting. After talking with a guy who used to work for sportsbooks, I really think this style of strategy has the best chance of working long term.
 
I also place extra bets on the picks on connected “derivative” markets. So, for example, if I have an over 2,5 goal pick, then I place extra bets on the over 0.5 FT, 0.5 HT, and 1.5 FT markets, too. I call my system the AT-10 system.
 

The AT-10 System, additional pre-match and in-play bet triggers

I have split the system into 4 market types, Overs, Home Wins, Unders and Draws. I am using percentage staking plans for each bet type. You can use it with one big linked bank or 4 separate betting banks for each market type. (Personally, I am using 4 separate betting banks for each market type.) You can follow each system with just one strategy or with multiple strategies of that market type. I put my recommended Betaminic trigger strategy first with additional recommended strategies on the right. You can follow this system betting manually or with automated betting bots. You can follow it with Betfair, Pinnacle, Bet365 or any other bookmaker. If you are betting manually, always take a little extra time to look around for the best odds. It can make a bigger difference than you imagine in the long run.

System

Betaminic Trigger Strategy

Picks per month

Main & Add-on bets

(For manual or automated betting)

Additional Betaminic Trigger Strategies for this system

Overs System

Betting Bank 1

Colossus 06 Away Scoring Overs 34 of 111 leagues (2021-9-23)

34ppm

Pre-Match Bets

1% Over 2.5 picks

3% Back over 0.5 goals FT

2% Back over 1.5 goals FT

2% Back over 0.5 goals HT

In-Play Bets   

2% Back over 1.5 goals FT at HT if 0-0

5% liability Lay The Draw                                 

Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-21) 21ppm

ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20) 35ppm

Home Win System

Betting Bank 2

HOMES YENİ SHARE by User GrandEkinoks (Updated 2021-01-05) 30 of 111 leagues  

33ppm

Pre-Match Bets

1% Home Win picks

In-Play Bets

1% on home team @10,20,30m if  + stats. This means if the home team live stats are better than the away team live stats then place an extra bet at each time point. (5 stats = home dangerous attacks, home total shots, home possession, home attacks, home shots on target)

1% @10,20,30m if HDA+5/THS+2. This means if the home team live stats Home Dangerous Attacks are +5 and the Total Home Shots are +2 compared to the away team stats, then place extra bets at each time point.

10% Bet on home team if away team gets a red card during the first half. (Only if the home team had pre-match odds under 2)

5% Liability Lay bet on away team win if the away team scores first in the first half. (Only if the home team had pre-match odds under 2)

Home Dog 88 of 111 leagues 13ppm

Not home on. (Updated 2021-11-15) 38 ppm

 

Draw System

(Experimental)

Betting Bank 3

Draws are in late – All Leagues

21ppm

Pre-Match Bets

1% back the draw

1% back 0-0 in correct score

In-Play Bets

2% back the draw in-play if the score is 1-0 or 0-1 up to 80m.

Backing the Draw / Apostando al Empate (107 of 111 leagues) (Updated 2021-12-09) 14ppm (*But not in April and only after it has a losing month.)

 

Unders System

(Experimental)

Betting Bank 4

TW Under 2.5 Goals Against the Trend 101 of 111 leagues

26ppm

Pre-Match Bets

1% Under 2.5 picks

3% Back under 4.5 goals FT

2% Back under 3.5 goals FT

2% Back under 1.5 goals HT

In-Play Bets   

2% Back under 3.5 goals FT at HT if 2 goals or less have been scored

Under Home Underdog and Away Winner Streak (Updated 2021-11-17) All 111 Leagues 23ppm

 

 
I am using percentage staking with these bets.
 
I share my results on Reddit. You are welcome to join the group. I am trying to make a community of Betaminic users there.
My latest results from this AT-10 set is on there.
 
I also put some information about my recommended system on my website
By sharing my ideas, I have gotten help and advice over the years that has helped me develop this system. It would be great if we could help each other make it work even better. Please let me know if you want to use my bot set or have questions or ideas about my system.
 

If you are betting manually, then I would recommend the 2 Overs and Unders systems because they are mainly pre-match bets. You can split your bets between the over 0.5 HT, 1.5 FT, 1.5 FT and 2.5 FT goal bets for over picks, and under 4.5 FT, 3.5 FT, 2.5 FT and 1.5 HT goal bets for under picks. I really recommend splitting your stake over the 4 markets to get more chance for value odds. The Home Win System and Draw system would be just normal home win and draw pre-match bets. The add-on bets are in-play bets depending on the in-play stats.

If you want to use my bot set for automated betting with the Bf Bot Manager, email me at [email protected]

Thanks for reading this far!

5 thoughts on “When should we change or stop following a betting strategy?”

  1. Woah?! Most of those strategies are huge losers since shared. I follow a few of them. I don’t know, it doesn’t seem possible to make profit. I am down about 45 units level staking since I started February 12th. All the strategies I follow are big time winners since shared, but not last 4,5 months. Those who are up are up by just a few units. Then we have the Colossus 06 that you follow, just a straight out loser. Had to throw it for the original Colossus 06, a lot better, but not good enough. And Deneme, holy… Have won 4 out of 54 bets since I started follow it. Just waitning for it to hit, but it never does. Running out of picks, won’t afford to buy new if I don’t win big time coming weeks. No hope, since that have never happened so far…

    1. Thanks for your comment. Yes, some of the strategies have been on a long flat or negative run. Deneme has had an extraordinary long run of losses. I’m still following the new colossus 06 (it had a bad April, but was in profit in May and June) but “ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20)” is getting much better results as an over 2.5 goals strategy at the moment and is worth a look. At the moment I am having the most success with building a bot set around single strategies with their own separate betting banks. I have also started laying losing patters on Betfair. I shared my screenshot about this on the Reddit site. If you are having trouble getting things to work and only have a few picks left. I recommend you switch to only “ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20)” and place extra bets on the HT over 0.5 goal bet, on the over 0.5 goal FT bet and the over 1.5 goal FT bet. Then you can spread your risk on multiple markets related to the same value total goals trend on the match. Do you have the Bf Bot Manager? I can send you the bot set for this if you want.

      Over 2.5 goals – single strategy bot system
      https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/comments/vkd8dq/overs_betting_strategy_results_update_22191_on_a/

      Laying negative trends – single strategy bot system
      https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/comments/vsgrir/working_lay_betting_strategy_for_betaminic_picks/

  2. Hi, thanks for your reply.
    Ah, yes, the “ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20)” is one if few that have done alright lately. I unfollowed Contend UD, Deneme, Testing Under 2.0 and Colossus 06. I promise you that they will all swing up big time, I have that power!!
    I kept “ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20)”, ”No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams” and ”Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1)” since they do alright too. 83 picks, hope they keep going up. It will probably be the ones I unfollowed that will do fantastic now :D.
    I don’t have the bots yet, my plan is to go for botbetting if the bankroll grows to a certain point.

  3. This have not turned out well so far. Almost every game ending 0-0/1-0/0-1. Losing tons of money. And the top strategy ”No Draws Medium Streak – Both Teams” hits 1/5 at best. This is horrible. I have never lost this much before I started following Betaminics top strategies. 6 months with constant losses. Just horrible.

    1. I’m sorry to hear that the set of strategies is not going well. What staking plan and starting bank size are you using? Have you passed the 100 bets mark with the strategies? Are you placing any extra bets on related markets? I have 3 really recommended strategies at the moment. 2 of them are over 2.5 goals strategies and 1 of them is a lay the home team (or back Double Chance X2). The staking plan is important for them. If you are losing money with the current strategies then I really recommend switching to one or all of the 3 I recommended in my last newsletter. Did you get it? You can see the results on the Reddit community page.

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