Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +£409 in the last month
2 System Change: IPT in-play trading data for BFBM, BetaminicDraw on TippingSports, 0-0 Correct Score Bot
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
4 Automated Betting Bots – Email me if you want a bot set.
5 Ideas for Researching Betaminic Strategies: Some interesting ideas from other users
Read below in part 2 of the newsletter for more details.
1 Betting System results +£409 in the last month
+£409 net profit in the last month
Betaminic Draw Bot System: +£1,052 net profit (+£1,237 gross profit) in the last month. BM Draw System starting 1k nominal bank now £3,181 (£2,671 net)
BSG Draw Bot System: +£439 net profit (+£539 gross profit) in the last month. BSG Draw System starting 3k nominal bank now £7,008 (£6,208 net)
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9”: -£881 net loss (-£820 gross loss) in the last month. 2024 LD9 starting 5k nominal bank now £4,180 (£4,119 net)
Contend UD: -£580 net loss (-£562 gross loss) in the last month. 2024 LD9 starting 5k nominal bank now £4,438 (£4,420 net)
The Betaminic Draw System had a fantastic month hitting its target 1k profit after costs with +123 points profit. The increase from £5 to £10 stakes gave it a chance to hit that target.
The BSG Draw System also returned to winning ways, but only making +53 points profit. Over the last 8 months it now has made +400 points, so that is about +50 points per month. This might be the new reality of the system. The new 2k traded volume rule has improved results and reduced volatility so far, but it is still too soon to tell if the change will allow the nominal bank to be reduced from 300 to 200 points again.
My 2024 LD9 low drawdown set had a losing start of -8.2 points loss, but it is early days for this set with each strategy barely getting into double digits of picks.
Contend UD also had a -5.6 points loss for this month, but again it is early days. This is a strategy I think is due a large winning streak soon, which is why I am following it with its own separate bank. It is not a low drawdown strategy, so it is separate from the other Betaminic LD9 strategies.
Betaminic Draw Bot System
(5 strategies running since October 18th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023)
6 bots x 9 strategies = 54 bots
BSG Draw System
(Running since June 28th 2023)
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9”
(Running since Jan 18th 2024)
Contend UD
(Running since Jan 18th 2024)
I am still confident in my picks for my set of 9 low drawdown strategies, but it should be noted that Betaminic’s set of 4 low drawdown strategies is still beating me!
This account currently posts tips from these betting strategies:
Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04)
2 System Changes – IPT in-play trading data for BFBM, BetaminicDraw on TippingSports, 0-0 Correct Score Bot
I have taken the plunge and am trying IPT for 1 month for £33, and if it works well, I may go for their 1-year option of £239. I am hoping that it will fill in the gaps for the draw system games that don’t get bet on in-play due to a lack of livescore data. IPT says it covers all the Betfair in-play games, so it should improve the efficiency of the two draw systems I am running. It also has some new statistics that BFBM does not have for in-play games, such as their “Pressure Index 1” which combines the shots off target, shots on target, amount of possession from the last 10 minutes of play to give a numerical value of current attacking “pressure” in the game. I will also be playing with those new stats in the BFBM to see if they can create any working bots. They also have a number of recommended in-play strategies on their site that I will try to convert to automated bots. They have 3 kinds of pressure index, so it opens up a few more variables to try out. They also do a 1-day for £1 offer if you want to try it on a busy Saturday or Sunday. When I asked, they said they mainly do manual betting, so they don’t have any existing bots for BFBM. If there are few people doing something, there may be more chance of getting value out of it. If I make anything that works, I will share them with you. But it is mainly the livescore for the draw systems that I want.
If you are interested in trying IPT In Play Trading data feed for the Bf Bot Manager, here are the prices.
I will be running comparative test sets for the next month to see how the BSG and Betaminic draw sets do with and without the IPT data. Will it be worth it or not?
If anyone has any IPT bots that they would be kind enough to share with me, it would be greatly appreciated. :-)😊
I do know a veteran Bf Bot Manager user Cid Marcos has made a number of videos about bot strategies using IPT and BFBM, but they are all in Portuguese. You can still see the bot settings in the video though. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIWmipoZf9w
If you do try IPT, please note that you need to change the “Match Minute” rule to a “Time to bet” rule.
This is because the game minute data is not sent to the “Time” column in the markets screen. So for the in-play draw bots, we need to change the “Match Minute” 5m-89m rule to a “Time to bet” rule with “Start betting 300s after market goes in play” and “Keep betting in play to 104m” This means it will bet until 45m 1st half + 15m HT + 44m 2nd half, but the timings will not be exact to the exact minute and if there are long delays for some reason, the match minute will not match up so well. But for the draw bots we don’t need it to bet precisely to the 89m, we just don’t want t betting during injury time when there is little chance of an equalizer. So I don’t think it will be an issue. This rule only needs to be edited for the bots that will bet in-play.
New 0-0 Correct Score test bot for draw bot sets
One of our group members has been having a try with placing 0-0 bets on the Correct Score market pre-match for the BSG picks. I am going to run a similar test with both the BSG and Betaminic Draw systems. Very rough back testing suggests it could generate positive ROI, so we are on to the testing stage. I will let you know my results next month.
The Betaminic Draw system in its current state is not impossible use, but I understand it is a bit cumbersome with 9 x 6 bots making a 54-bot set. So I have managed to get Betaminic to run the draw strategies through TippingSports. I have been testing that feed to see if it improved things and my general conclusion after tracking it for 3 months is that it will be cheaper, simpler and have slightly less volatility (drawdown) than the current version. Also, it can be followed with one simple set of 5 bots. It manages to get the price down to a fixed monthly rate of £120 if you pay for a 1-year subscription. This is much better than the current case where my 9 strategies overlap sometimes causing duplicate or even triplicate picks and costs vary between £81 to £186 per month with no upper limit and could touch £250 on a busy month. So from this month I am switching over to the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports on a 1-year subscription which also gets sent to my Bf Bot Manager software.
Below are my results from my 56 bots run through the Betamin Builder over the past 5 months.
Below are my results from my 5 bots run through the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports over the past 4 months.
Since the dates and stake sizes don’t match up for easy comparison, in the below two charts I have recalculated to show both versions over the same 3 months with 10 GBP level stakes. It makes it much easier to see how the 2 sets compare to each other.
The key result is that the 5 bots run through the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports made double the profit than the original set of 56 bots running directly through the Betamin Builder. It also made +£387 profit after costs in a month when the original sets made a -£745 loss. This is most likely due to larger drawdowns caused by multiple strategies betting on the same matches that were losers, which just made the losses worse. So the TippingSports version had much smoother results. And I think that is a top priority for many of us now. If you are interested in following the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports, ask me for the bot set and then email tom.hudson@betaminic.com to get the subscription setup.
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
I am now following 2 draw systems. BSG and Betaminic, and also following a low drawdown system of 9 Betaminic strategies and 1 separate profit focused Betaminic strategy. I am using the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software to automate betting on these systems. This month I am also using IPT In Play Trading data to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores.
For the draw sets, see my website for more details on how to set them up:
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/betting-systems/
Email me if you want to use any of my bot sets.
System 1: Betaminic Draw Strategies
1 | nul x a – b by nirnouta50 (TW version) AL WR33% | https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1219900
|
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Mid Table Team (Updated 2023-12-5) AL | (This is a duplicated and edited version of “Mid Table Team” https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/595258 . I edited the original strategy to include all 111 leagues in order to increase bet volume. If you want to use this one, you will have to duplicate and edit the strategy in your private strategies area of the Betamin Builder.) |
Betaminic Draw System: 100-point bank
Must use Bf Bot Manager to get best results.
Follow the Betaminic Draw System via 1) the Betamin Builder from Betaminic.com
2) the BetaminicDraw tips feed via TippingSports
Bet 1: Back the draw at opposite odds at 25 minutes before kick-off.
Bet 2: Back the draw at current odds close to kick off.
Bet 3: Back the draw in-play at current odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 4: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 5: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds +4 ticks if a goal goes in.
Cost to follow through TippingSports: £120 per month fixed with a 12-month subscription. (Best value)
Cost to follow directly through Betamin Builder: All 9 strategies: I have paid between £80-£185 per month so far. The aggregator suggests 487 per month on average which would be £248 GBP per month with the 2,000-pick package. £418 GBP per month with the 100 pick packages.
Drawdown: -20 points monthly average / -60 points maximum so far.
Exit point: When the core trend of a strategy does not have positive ROI with its long-term win rate from a recent data set of 100 bets or more. In this case strategies that stop working will be removed from the set.
Maximum Variance: -60 points / +140 points so far
Target Profit: 70 points per month
System 2: The BSG Draw System
1 | bsgDrawSystem |
BSG Draw System: 300-point bank
Must use Bf Bot Manager to get best results.
Follow the BSG Draw System from my TippingSports account https://www.tippingsports.com/en/profile/8801
Bet 1: Back the draw at opposite odds at 25 minutes before kick-off.
Bet 2: Back the draw at current odds close to kick off.
Bet 3: Back the draw in-play at current odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 4: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds if a goal goes in.
Bet 5: Back the draw in-play at opposite odds +4 ticks if a goal goes in.
Cost: Free for the first month and then £100 per month.
Drawdown: -100 points monthly average / -230 points maximum so far.
Maximum Variance: -230 points / +160 points so far
Exit point: When the core trend does not have positive ROI with a 33%-win rate from a data set of 100 bets or more.
Target Profit: 50 points per month
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
1 | 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | |
2 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
3 | BANKER?? | |
4 | e2 | |
5 | OVER 2. | |
6 | Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | |
7 | TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites | |
8 | UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJ | |
9 | x 4 + |
2024 LD9 System: 50-point bank
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 100 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -10 points monthly average so far / 12-year -32.33 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 114 Betaminic picks per month average costs £58 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £98 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 3.6 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 36 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -8 points monthly average so far / 12-year -34.12 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 27 Betaminic picks per month average costs £14 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £23 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 5: A mix of low drawdown and high profit Betaminic Strategies that have performed well over time.
1 | Colossus 01 Home Dog | |
2 | BANKER??? | |
3 | Contend UD | |
4 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
5 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
6 | draw top |
These are some of my personal favorites. You can consider following them if you want. For the higher drawdowns of Contend UD, Empate Equipos igualados and draw top, it may be better to give each of them separate banks and treat them as separate systems. These strategies are included in my System 1, 2 and 4, so I do not run this as one set. It is just a suggestion of strategies I recommend for manual bettors.
4 Automated Betting Bots – My Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
If you need a bot set. Email me so that I can make sure you have the most up to date one.
5 Ideas for Researching Betaminic Strategies – Some interesting ideas from other users
League selection: looking at drawdown and game months
A veteran Betaminic user of many years was kind enough to share his advice on league selection with me.
Game Months
He has been using the game month filter to cut out certain months from strategies. He noticed that for some strategies, there are particular months that almost every season produce negative results that are distinctly worse than the main trend. By removing those months, it can improve the performance of those strategies.
I can imagine Summer/Christmas/New Year/Winter breaks maybe affecting things. Transfer windows could affect things, too. And if there are unexpected bad months, this could be possibly from periodic betting model updates or changes from Pinnacle which could happen mid or quarter way through seasons. Up to now, I had always imagined these factors were all taken into account by the odds which get adjusted by the private models, early sharps and then the public market. But there seem to be some months that just seem worse than others year on year and the strategies can be improved by removing them.
For example, with the example below:
I saw straight away that this strategy had a bad January, compared to other months. In fact, one lucky January in 2017 was the only real big positive month. There seems to be something distinctly poor about the January results. Seeing this, I immediately start to think about what kind of guidelines I can attach to this when I share the idea with others.
Possible Guidelines with this method:
- Only consider months with data of +100 bets. Anything lower does not have enough data to support inclusion or exclusion.
- Only consider removing a month if most incidences of that month are losing each year. Just one big losing or winning month is not enough to support a month being included or excluded. For example, in the above January, the overall results are negative, and there is just one big winning month that stops it from being even obviously worse.
- If possible, separate by summer and winter leagues, but not if it reduces the data levels for each month too much.
Using Drawdown to include/exclude leagues
We can often include leagues easily when they have a lot of data, high yields and high profits. But when we get down to the final stages of league selection when we are not sure whether to include a league or not, we should look at whether including that league increases or deceases the drawdown as a kind of tie-breaker. For example, if we are including leagues that have +5% yields and +100 bets in their league data, but we have a strategy with +4.9% yields and 105 bets, or +5.5% yields and 98 bets, then it is a borderline case. We can then see if it affects the strategy drawdown in a positive or negative way and in this way have an extra indicator for whether to include or exclude that league. By also including this we can avoid the borderline leagues from making a strategy more volatile with a worse drawown.
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Best of variance,
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicDraw on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my BetaminicDraw bot set)
6 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicLdsys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
7 Betaminic’s tipping account BETAMINIC1 on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
8 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
9 My BSG Draw System account TomW on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 Smartbet.io automated betting software for PS3838/Pinnacle (+50% first deposit bonus with “TomW” code)
4 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
5 Betting Agents: : AsianConnect and BetInAsia Access a PS3838 account, online sportsbook & exchange aggregator, and 3% commission white-label version of Betfair with no Premium Charge via a betting agent. AsianConnect (via VPN for UK/AUS residents) or BetInAsia. See my site for a list of which site accepts/restricts which country. Only USA, Aruba, Singapore, and The Philippines are restricted by both. So one of them will probably work for you.
6 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
7 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
8 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Special Offers (Deposit Bonuses, Cashback, etc.)
1 25% Deposit bonus up to 500 EUR for new AsianConnect signups through this link
2 50% Deposit bonus up to 25 EUR for Smartbet.io, when you make your FIRST deposit, tell them “I would like the TomW 50% deposit bonus.” in the deposit chat tab.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.