2024-5-20 BSG Newsletter – Betting System Monthly Results Update
Dear all,
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results: +£334 in the last month after costs
2 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
3 System Menu – Key Stats for easy comparison
4 Long Term Results Overview
5 Automated Betting Bots – My Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
6 Screenshots and Detailed Results
7 Tennis Statistics Page
Read the newsletter on my website or download the PDF version.
Best Regards,
Tom
1 Betting System results +£334 in the last month after costs
+£334 net profit in the last month from the 5 systems after costs have been taken into account.
I am trying to simplify how I show these results. I have had feedback that the newsletter has too much data and can be a bit hard to process.
I will try to put the key data and summary at the start and keep the detailed part at the end for people who are interested in the specific data of particular system.
I think the key data we want is, “Did it win or lose last month? How did each system do? Do we need to change anything?” Let me know if there are other key questions you want answered each month.
Did it win or lose last month?
Lat month, it made +£334 after costs, which is not that much for a £30,000 nominal bank, but still better than a loss. It has now only had 3 losing months out of the last 11, which is quite good. The extra Betaminic strategies are helping to balance out the losing months of the draw system.
How did each system do?
I am going to talk about how each system did based on points. That means how it did in terms of the 100-point bank allotted to it, which is based on my drawdown estimations.
The Betaminic Draw System (via TippingSports) is doing the best in my opinion. It made +11.69 points last month and has been in profit for 5 of the 6 months it is running.
My Low Drawdown set of 9 had a strong recovery month of +32 points after last month’s -2 point loss.
BetaminicLdsys also made profit with +4.2 points, recovering from last month’s -2 point loss.
ContendUD had an unsurprising -7.64 point loss after its very strong +13 points profit last month.
The BSG Draw System had a losing month with -16.25 points after its +18 point profit last month.
So far, only the Betaminic Draw System (via TippingSports) is performing above expectations with 10 points per month. 3 of the other strategies have decent monthly scores of 5, 8 & 9 points per month, but they are under the target levels. ContendUD has only had 124 bets, which is too few to draw any conclusions about its performance.
Why are some of my bots underperforming? (Spoiler: Natural Variance)
The expected points per month for my Betaminic Systems 3, 4 & 5 come from the Betamin Builder strategy details and the aggregator. They are based on Pinnacle closing odds. My Betfair odds with their 2% commission should still be higher than Pinnacle odds over the long term, so I do not think it is an odds problem. A few bets may get missed when Pinnacle selections do not exist on Betfair exchange markets, but it should not lead to an over 50% underperformance. I think the main reason the bots are underperforming is that it is simple variance (I can hear you all groaning!), but seriously, from using the BSG draw system, which is a 100% working and profitable trend based on over 10,000 bets of data, I can see much clearer now the long term nature of this numbers game. The BSG draw system core trend has 100-600 bets per month. A losing run can last 500 bets or so. In the BSG Draw System, that is just a month, but for Betaminic strategies, that could be a year or more depending on the nature of the strategy! Even with ContendUD on 124 bets with modest profit, I know that it is just in a negative variance run and is due a winning run to get back to its long term trend. I think this is the view you need to have when using these big data strategies. Don’t look at months as time, look at the number of bets. You need to be looking for 500-100 bets to really give a strategy a fair chance to repeat its long term trend.
The expected points per month for my Betaminic Draw System 2 come from the actual bots results being divided by the number of months it has been running. The 8 points figure comes from the last time I updated this figure on my website, maybe 1 month ago. So this month its positive results have raised that monthly ppm average to 10 points.
The expected points per month for my BSG Draw System 1 come from my original £1 test bots. This underperformance is more disappointing since the data is not backtested data at risk of overfitting or datamining like Betamin Builder strategies, but all real bet data from Betfair markets. But over that period, I did switch to the 5k traded volume rule that reduced the number of bets a lot. That may be a factor. Also, it is more likely that my £1 bets all got matched and sometimes my £10 bets did not get fully matched on minor events. It is also possible I ran out of bankroll on busy weekend peak times and could not cover all the bets. Overall, I feel the £1 bot data is more reliable as an indication of the system results.
The current data shows that A1, A2, A3 and A6 are the best performing bots in terms of monthly profit. A1 and A6 have the best ROI. A5 has taken a surprising dive and may get dropped if it does not improve. It used to have one of the highest ROIs in the set, but is now near the bottom. Dropping that bot would allow for a smaller unit bank as the potential maximum drawdown would decrease slightly. In the Betaminic Draw set, the A5 bot is still doing very well with an ROI of 13.3% and made profit in 5 of the 6 months it has been running. It is interesting how the BSG Draw System and the Betaminic Draw System perform differently there.
The Betaminic Draw System is currently made up of 10 Betaminic draw strategies. The bot set only bets once on a selection even if multiple strategies select the same event. This has worked really well and its B2 bot has an ROI of 5.67%. The in-play bots are doing better than the BSG draw system with ROIs in double digits. The Betaminic Draw System does not use the 0-0 correct score bot, but I do have its test results being tracked on my Simulation PC and it shows an awful loss. It seems the BSG Draw System has more 0-0 games (13%) than the Betaminic Draw System (8%) which obviously results in the in-play B3,B4,B5 bots having better results.
Looking at the performance of the Betaminic Draw System makes me want to take more advantage of it. I will double my stakes on it from £10 to £20 with the aim of getting £1,000 per month out if it.
Do we need to change anything?
You don’t need to change anything.
2 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
I am now following 5 Betting Systems.
System 1: The BSG Draw System (An Automated betting system that bets pre-match and in-play)
System 2: Betaminic Draw Strategies (An Automated betting system that bets pre-match and in-play)
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9” (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024) (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4 (A manual or automated betting system that bets pre-match)
I am using the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software to automate betting on these systems on Betfair.com.
I am also using IPT In Play Trading data feed for Bf Bot Manger to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores.
I am also using ApostasBF and its free ATZbet tool as a non-Betfair.com way to follow my BSG draw system to avoid the Betfair 20% Premium Charge.
See my website for more details on how to set them up:
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/betting-systems/
Email me if you want to use any of my bot sets.
System 1: The BSG Draw System
Follow in 2 ways:
Method 1: Subscription
Costs: 100 GBP per month bsgDrawSystem subscription (First month free)
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription and Betfair account)
(Optional: Some people also get the IPT In Play Trading data feed for Bf Bot Manger to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores for £20 per month.
Method 2: No Subscription
Free if you bet using the ApostasBF betting exchange.
(You must sign up via my referral link https://apostasbf.com/exchange/?affid=NTyIvc or you will still need a BSG Draw subscription.)
System 2: Betaminic Draw Strategies
1 | draw-robman-S1 | |
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 | |
10 | Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL |
Follow in 2 ways:
1 Subscription
Through TippingSports.com
Costs: 140 EUR (120 GBP) per month BetaminicDraw Subscription (Cheaper and simpler than following directly through Betaminic)
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription)
2 Pay-per-pick
Through Betaminic.com
Costs: Depends on how many draw strategies you follow and which pick package you buy.
(Also needs a 10 GBP per month Bf Bot Manager Subscription)
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
1 | 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | |
2 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
3 | BANKER?? | |
4 | e2 | |
5 | OVER 2. | |
6 | Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | |
7 | TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites | |
8 | UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJ | |
9 | x 4 + |
2024 LD9 System: 50-point bank
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 100 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -10 points monthly average so far / 12-year -32.33 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 114 Betaminic picks per month average costs £58 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £98 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
1 | Contend UD |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 3.6 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 36 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -8 points monthly average so far / 12-year -34.12 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 27 Betaminic picks per month average costs £14 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £23 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
1 | Colossus 01 Home Dog | |
2 | BANKER??? | |
3 | Contend UD | |
4 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 120 points after 12 months)
Drawdown: -6 points monthly average so far / 12-year -25 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost to follow through TippingSports: £42 per month fixed with a 12-month subscription.
Cost to follow directly through Betamin Builder: All 4 strategies between £30-£50 per month. The aggregator suggests 60 picks per month on average which would be £30 GBP per month with the 2,000-pick package. £51 GBP per month with the 100 pick packages.
3 System Menu: Key stats for easy comparison
In order to make it easier to compare the systems, I will display them from a unit (stake) perspective and a bank size (points) perspective.
Looking at the above tables, it looks like System 3: Betaminic LDD Set of 9 gets the best return on capital. So that is a good one to start out with. I think it is a good idea to spread risk by following multiple systems, so I recommend following both the BSG Draw System and the Betaminic Draw System when your betting budget allows.
4 Long Term Results Overview
After 11 months of this new approach, my betting system as a whole is up £8.6k after costs. (The numbers in my last newsletter were incorrect. My excel sheet formulas had got messed up again.) The increase in stakes for Betaminic Draw from £10 to £20 have meant my nominal bank has increased to 36,000, but I would like to note that I only have 7,000 of actual working capital available for my betting account. If the worst case of unlucky negative variance comes all at the same time for all of the bot sets, then I am prepared to refill the bank up to a maximum of the nominal bank figure. From December 2023 to February 2024 felt like big losing months to me, mainly because the old BSG Draw bank calculations were wrong and bankrupted those banks, but in the big picture it does not look so bad now. The other systems helped balance things.
In theory, once my working bank catches up with my nominal bank, then I will withdraw any amount over the conservative 36k nominal bank. With 3 of my 5 systems aiming for £1,000 profit per month and the other 2 of them aiming for another 1,000 together, then it aims for a meaningful withdrawal amount of around £4,000 per month.
5 Automated Betting Bots – My Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
If you need one of my bot sets. Email me.
6 Screenshots and Detailed Results
This is the data heavy part that you can skip if you want. It is more for people who want to see exact details of particular strategies they are also following.
System 1
BSG Draw System (Running since June 28th 2023)
After 11 months, the BSG Draw System is showing an average of 45 units profit per month.
Using a 880 unit potential maximum drawdown as the basis for a 100-point bank, staking 0.11 points per bet led to an average of 5 points profit per month.
Including costs, the set has made £4,046 after 11 months. Not bad for a £9,000 bank. It looks set to make 50% return on capital over the year
The 6-bot set is on £5,122. This includes 2% commission taken out. My T7 & T8 tracker bots are showing we are in a short-term negative period with a 26% win rate from the last 257 bets (so more draws than average are due), and we are also just coming to the end of a medium term positive period when the win rate has been above 33% for the last 768 bets. (I reset T7 when it goes green and I reset T8 when it goes red so I can track where we are in the trend cycles.)
The new test bots A7.1, A7.2, A7.3, A7.4 and A8 have not shown any convincing data to suggest they might work yet. A7.2 has gone over 1,000 bets of data, which strongly suggests it does not work.
System 2
Betaminic Draw Bot System
Note: There are 2 versions; the Betamin Builder version and the TippingSports version. I recommend the TippingSports versions for simplicity, volatility and cost. I show both versions’ results here so that we can track the individual performance of strategies that make up the set, and then we can judge when to add or remove trigger strategies.
TippingSports Version
(10 Betaminic draw strategies in total: 5 strategies running since November 17th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024)
6 bots x 1 TippingSports account = 6 bots
After 6 months, the Betaminic Draw System is showing an average of 50 units profit per month.
Using a 590 unit potential maximum drawdown as the basis for a 100-point bank, staking 0.21 points per bet led to an average of 9 points profit per month. (That is 4 more points per month than the BSG Draw System is making.)
Including subscription costs, the set has made £2,250 after 6 months. Not bad for a £6,000 bank. It looks set to make 75% return on capital over the year. I have doubled stakes from £10 to £20 on this set. (Note that in the table and screenshot below, the set used only £5 stakes for the first 2 months.)
The T5 tracker bot shows it is in the middle of medium term negative period with a B2 win rate of 29% from thelast 632 bets. Despite the B2 win rate being under 32%, the in-play B3,B4,B5 bots have helped it make strong profits over that 3-month 29% win rate period. The Betaminic Draw system seems to work better than the BSG Draw System in terms of bank efficiency. While it has seen losing runs of -250 units, those losing runs have been much less frequent than the BSG Draw System. I think this is due to the fact it is based on a consistnt market model for its trigger tips. I show my confidence in this system by increasing stakes on it.
Test bots for related markets don’t have enough data to prove they work yet. The 0-0 bot seeems not to work at all. But this is a mix of 10 strategies, so it may be more useful to look at results from each individual strategy.
Betamin Builder Version of Betaminic Draw
(13 Strategies in total: 5 strategies running since October 18th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024, 3 more adde March 18th)
6 bots x 13 strategies = 78 bots
This set is running in simulation mode. It is for me to track the individual perfomance of the Betaminic draw strategies I am using, am considering using or have used in the Betaminic Draw System. It definitely proves that following the Betaminic Draw System through TippingSports monthly subscription is cheaper than following it directly through the Betamin Builder, just because there are so many duplciate picks and bets. (456 picks used in April compared to the 250 tips actually used from the TippingSports feed.) But this set of 13 includes 3 strategies no longer being used in the TippingSports set.
The BetaminicDraw TippingSports account currently posts tips from these betting strategies:
Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% [ADDED 2023-11-17] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1219890
Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR [ADDED 2023-11-17] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1213700
Empate Equipos igualados [ADDED 2023-11-17] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/924392
draw top [ADDED 2023-11-17] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/115054
Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% [ADDED 2023-12-20] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1269991
Missing Draws – Top Leagues [ADDED 2023-12-20] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/19890
Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL [ADDED 2023-11-17] [PAUSED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/121364
HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) [ADDED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1272189
Pro7 Bore Draw v2 [ADDED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/7940
draw-robman-S1 [ADDED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/266265
Past strategies used in this set
nul x a – b by nirnouta50 (TW version) AL WR33% [ADDED 2023-11-17] [REMOVED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1219900
Mid Table Team (Updated 2023-12-5) AL [ADDED 2023-12-20] [REMOVED 2024-3-18] (This private strategy is an edited version of the “Mid Table Team” filters applied to all leagues. https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/595258 )
HDQ Unders Draws (5Y PI Version) [ADDED 2024-2-27] [REMOVED 2024-3-18] https://www.betaminic.com/system/strategy/details/1272190
The 13 strategies made a loss this month, while the TippingSports set made a profit. This set is also now in the red after 8 months after costs. I think this means it is right to only bet once on each draw bet selection, even if multiple strategies select it. That just increases risk on one market.
I am following both BSG Draws and Betmaninc Draws, but separately. Occasionally, they have overlapping bets, but for the moment I am letting them double bet on those matches. BSG Draws seeems to tap into lower scoring matches with more 0-0s and 1-1s, but BetaminicDraws seems to have more scoring games and thus the in-play bots having better results than BSG Draws.
For test purposes, I also added in various test bots to the Betaminic draw stratgies to see if any of them find a new value trend in related markets.
First, the 10 strategies used in the TippingSports feed. With these tracking sets, I am looking for if the B2 bot is at the historical win rate, but not in profit. That is a sign it has lsot it edge and should be dropped. For the other data, if it reaches 1,000 bets, then it is enough data to show this bot works or not for that strategy. If it has a large loss after 500 bets, then it also a sign the bot does not work for that strategy. (e.g. over -£1,000 for these £10 stakes.)
Next, the 3 strategies that were used before, but have now been dropped.
1 | draw-robman-S1 | |
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 | |
10 | Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL |
System 3
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9” (Running since Jan 18th 2024)
After 4 months, the set is showing an average of 4 units profit per month.
Using a 50-unit potential maximum drawdown as the basis for a 100-point bank, staking 2 points per bet led to an average of 7 points profit per month.
Including costs, the set has made £1,555 after 4 months. Not bad for a £5,000 bank. It looks set to make 90% return on capital over the year if it continues that performance.
System 4
Betaminic Contend UD (Running since Jan 18th 2024)
After 4 months, the set is showing an average of 1 unit profit per month.
Using a 50-unit potential maximum drawdown as the basis for a 100-point bank, staking 2 points per bet led to an average of 1 pointsprofit per month.
Including costs, the set has made £235 after 4 months. Not so good for a £5,000 bank. It looks set to make 14% return on capital over the year if it continues that performance. This is one of my personal picks that I think is a sleeping giant and due a strong run at some point. Over the years, I have seen it at the top of the rankings on the public strategies page, but I have always given up on it too early and missed its profit jumps. This time I am staying in until my bank breaks or I am proven right.
System 5
BetaminicLdsys (Running since March 18th 2024)
After 2 months, the set is showing an average of 0.37 units profit per month.
Using a 50-unit potential maximum drawdown as the basis for a 100-point bank, staking 2 points per bet led to an average of 0.74 points profit per month.
Including costs, the set has made £51 after 2 months. Not so good for a £5,000 bank. But it is still early days and the TippingSports data looks good.
7 Tennis Statistics Page
Betaminic have added a new statistics page for tennis. It uses tennis ATP/WTA statistics AND historical sportsbook odds since 2014 in the Betamin Builder style to show what betting strategies worked historically for tennis.
I had a quick look and, for example, it shows that backing the favorite in specific rounds of specific tournaments generated a profit over the last 10 years. It also shows backing which players leads to positive yields.
I have never seen this kind of tennis statistics page before, and am wondering how this can be used. It is not automated yet, but maybe that might happen later on if there is enough interest.
For now, the page is free to view. You just need to register for Betaminic (free). http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW
You can see the ATP/WTA calendar here
https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments
Then you can check if betting on the fav or dog in any particular rounds generates a profit for upcoming events.
If you have not seen it yet, then take a look.
https://www.betaminic.com/statistics-tennis/
I made a video about how I used it here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T95uMgfbeXo
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicDraw on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my BetaminicDraw bot set)
6 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicLdsys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
7 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 ApostasBF betting exchange: My BSG Draw System is available to my ApostasBF referrals for FREE! No subscriptions, no downloads, no VPS, just free automated betting.
4 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
5 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
6 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
7 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.
WARNING: Past data DOES NOT guarantee future profits, but it gives a smarter way to plan betting systems than other methods.
Read the material until you understand the strategies. Don’t use systems you don’t understand. Don’t rush into things.
ALL betting systems carry the risk of losing ALL your bank.
Betting is NOT an investment and in no way to be considered a viable “second income” or “retirement income”.
Do not use this or any betting service unless you understand and accept that.
Big data betting is a smarter way to bet, but it is still gambling.