2024-4-18 BSG Newsletter – Betting System Monthly Results Update
Dear all,
Super Short Summary of this newsletter:
1 Betting System results +£3,302 in the last month after costs
2.1 System Changes – Time to bet rule changed in bots B3,B4,B5
2.2 System Changes – ApostasBF method of following BSG Draw System free
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
System 1: Betaminic Draw Strategies
System 2: The BSG Draw System
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
System 6: Betaminic’s ShootingBets service (Manual betting. Not automated)
4 Automated Betting Bots – Email me if you want a bot set.
Read the newsletter on my website or download the PDF.
Best Regards,
Tom
1 Betting System results +£3,302 in the last month after costs
+£3,302 net profit in the last month
System 1
BSG Draw Bot System: +162 units; +£1,529 net profit (+£1,628 gross profit) in the last month. BSG Draw System starting 9k nominal bank total P/L now +£6,995 (+£5,995 net) in 10 months. That is +700 units in total and an average of +70 units profit per month.
System 2
Betaminic Draw Bot System: +85 units; +£732 net profit (+£852 gross profit) in the last month. Betaminic Draw System starting 6k nominal bank total P/L now up +£2,282 (+£1,922 net) in 5 months. That is +282 units in total and an average of +56 units profit per month.
System 3
Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9”: -0.6 units; -£102 net loss (-£60 gross loss) in the last month. 2024 LD9 starting 5k nominal bank now +£171 (-£5 net) in 3 months. That is +1.7 units in total and an average of 0.56 units profit per month.
System 4
Contend UD: +12 units; +£1,269 net profit (+£1,282 gross profit) in the last month. Contend UD starting 5k nominal bank now +£681 gross (+£631 net) in 3 months. That is +12.8 units in total and a average of 4.26 units profit per month.
System 5
2024 LD4 BetaminicLdsys: -1 unit; -£126 net loss (-£100 gross loss) in the last month. 2024 LD4 BetaminicLdsys starting 5k nominal bank now -£100 (-£126 net) in 1 month. That is -1 unit in total and an average of -1 units profit per month.
1.1
The BSG Draw System had a very good month and went over the +£7,000 for the first time a few days ago. The 0-0 Correct Score bot has been an important part of that winning run. The core system is working, but the bank management was the area giving problems. I feel that I have now solved that problem and am confident moving forward with my new bank management suggestions. I went deep into looking at the drawdowns of various draw strategies and my conclusion was that the ELS x 4 is the sensible, conservative figure to use as the Maximum Potential Expected Drawdown for each bot. 72% of all Betaminic draw strategies have an actual historical drawdown of between 1.5 to 4 x their ELS (Expected Losing Sequence) based on their win rate and number of bets in their data set. 100% of the 28% of Betaminic draw strategies with a MDD/ELS ratio higher than their ELSx4 had MDDs of 90 or higher. Also, 83% of ALL Betaminic public strategies have MDD/ELS ratio of their ELS x4 or less. This makes me confident that the ELSx4 figure is a good number to use to plan the possible maximum drawdown for EACH bot. I have made an Excel file that can be used for calculating the various ELS multiples based on a bots win rate and number of bets in their data set. You can download it here for free.
The practical result is this bank management suggestion:
Based on £1 bots monthly averages These figures are based on the £1 test bots that have been running the longest and have the most data, so I feel their data is more meaningful. The monthly average is calculated for each bot and the added together. In this way the 3 months of A6 data, 10 months of A3,A4,A5 bot data and 18 months of A1,A2 data can be balanced fairly in the calculations.
You can calculate your bank management plan by starting with your bank size or starting with your stake size.
For example, if your bank is £1,000, then your level stake should be 0.11% of that bank, which is £1.10.
The profit target is 16 points (+16%) per month. So you would hope for a +£160 increase on average per month.
We would be mentally prepared for drawdowns of -27% of the bank, but also be aware that we might have bad runs that could risk the entire bank.
Or, for example, if your starting level stake is £1, then you would need a bank of £880 for that. (880 units)
The profit target is 141 units per month. So you would hop for a +£141 increase on average per month.
We would be mentally prepared for drawdowns of -252 units (-£252) of the bank, but also be aware that we might have bad runs that could risk the entire bank.
I hope this makes it easier to plan your banks if you are following the 6 bot set.
1.2
The Betaminic Draw System had a winning month. And please note that the 0-0 correct score bot was dropped from this set last month. It does not work for the Betaminic Draw set the same way as it does for the BSG Draw Set.
I will unpause “Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL2” which will rejoin the set.
I also reviewed the bank management suggestion for BetaminicDraw
You can calculate your bank management plan by starting with your bank size or starting with your stake size.
For example, if your bank is £1,000, then your level stake should be 0.17% of that bank, which is £1.70.
The profit target is 8.2 points (+8.2%) per month. So you would hope for a +£82 increase on average per month.
We would be mentally prepared for drawdowns of -36% of the bank, but also be aware that we might have bad runs that could risk the entire bank.
Or, for example, if your starting level stake is £1, then you would need a bank of £590 for that. (590 units)
The profit target is 59 units per month. So you would hop for a +£59 increase on average per month.
We would be mentally prepared for drawdowns of -210 units (-£210) of the bank, but also be aware that we might have bad runs that could risk the entire bank.
I hope this makes it easier to plan your banks if you are following the 5-bot set. (No 0-0 Correct Score bot in the Betaminic Draw set.)
1.3
My 2024 LD9 low drawdown set made a 0.6 unit loss after 83 bets. It is not a large amount of data, so this is just par for the course and within the historical variance.
1.4
Contend UD finally showed signs of the good run I am expecting in 2024. Its +12 point increase from 25 bets was very welcome.
1.5
The BetaminicLdsys set of 4 strategies had a small -1 unit loss from 52 bets. Again, it is not a large amount of data, so this is just par for the course and within the historical variance.
After 10 months of this new approach, my betting system as a whole is up 7.7k after costs. (The numbers in my last newsletter were incorrect. My excel sheet formulas had got mixed up.) The new drawdown calculations have meant my nominal bank has increased to 30,000, but I would like to note that I only have 7,000 of actual working capital available for my betting account. But if the worst case of unlucky negative variance comes all at the same time for all of the bot sets, then I am prepared to refill the bank up to a maximum of the nominal bank figure. From December 2023 and February 2024 felt like big losing months to me, but in the big picture it does not look so bad.
In theory, once my working bank catches up with my nominal bank, then I will withdraw any amount over the conservative 30k nominal bank. With each of the 5 systems aiming for £1,000 profit per month, then it aims for a meaningful withdrawal amount of around £5,000 per month.
Screenshots
System 1 BSG Draw System
(Running since June 28th 2023)
System 2 Betaminic Draw Bot System
Note: There are 2 versions; the Betamin Builder version and the TippingSports version. I recommend the TippingSports versions for simplicity, volatility and cost. I show both versions’ results here so that we can track the individual performance of strategies that make up the set, and then we can judge when to add or remove trigger strategies.
TippingSports Version
(5 strategies running since November 17th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024)
6 bots x 1 TippingSports account = 6 bots
Betamin Builder Version
(5 strategies running since October 18th 2023, 4 more added December 18th 2023, 1 more added February 27th 2024)
6 bots x 13 strategies = 78 bots
Of the above 13 strategies, only 9 were used in the Tippingsports set. Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL will be unpaused from today.
1 | draw-robman-S1 | |
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 | |
10 | [PAUSED] Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL |
System 3 Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 ”2024 LD9”
(Running since Jan 18th 2024)
System 4 Betaminic Contend UD
(Running since Jan 18th 2024)
System 5 BetaminicLdsys
(Running since March 18th 2024)
System 6: Betaminic’s ShootingBets service
I have been using this service on Bet365. I won about £1,000 by manual betting on the picks, but had my account closed by Bet365. I am now prepping an account with a new soft bookie William Hill to use the service with. I will try to follow the advice from Betaminic’s article to avoid getting closed too quickly this time. https://www.betaminic.com/betting-guide/23-tips-on-how-to-avoid-getting-banned-by-bookies-when-using-shootingbets/
Results graph from https://www.betaminic.com/shootingbets/results/
2.1 System Changes – Time to bet rule changed in bot sets
To avoid having IPT and non-IPT sets, I have changed all my time to bet rules for the inplay bots to this:
This means that the B3,B4,B5 inplay bots will be active from 10 seconds after kick-off until 95 minutes after kick-off. That should equate to 45m First Half + 15m Half Time break + 35m of the Second Half (The 80 minute mark). If games have long delays, this may mean it won’t bet on late first goals, but I am okay with this.
You can edit this yourself or ask me for the latest bot set.
2.2 System Changes – ApostasBF method of following BSG Draw System free
As you will have read in a previous email. It is now possible to follow the BSG Draw System for free via the ApostasBF Exchange, a white labe version of Betfair.
You can read more about it here.
3 Current Betting System Setup Summary: Bank Size, Profit Targets, Costs, Drawdowns, Exit Points
I am now following 6 Betting Systems.
System 1: The BSG Draw System
System 2: Betaminic Draw Strategies
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
System 6: Betaminic’s ShootingBets service (Manual betting. Not automated)
I am using the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software to automate betting on these systems on Betfair.com.
I am also using IPT In Play Trading data to fill in the gaps for the Betfair livescores.
I am also using ApostasBF and its free ATZbet tool as a non-Betfair.com way to follow my BSG draw system.
See my website for more details on how to set them up:
https://bettingsystemsguide.com/betting-systems/
Email me if you want to use any of my bot sets.
System 1: The BSG Draw System
1 | bsgDrawSystem |
System 2: Betaminic Draw Strategies
1 | draw-robman-S1 | |
2 | Draw / Strategie / 3 AL WR33% | |
3 | Golden 6 No 6 Draws are in late V2 AL 32%WR | |
4 | Empate Equipos igualados | |
5 | draw top | |
6 | HDQ Unders Draws (Low Drawdown Version) | |
7 | Back the Draw (2020) v1 Dell (Update 2023-12-5) Y5% WR34% | |
8 | Missing Draws – Top Leagues | |
9 | Pro7 Bore Draw v2 | |
10 | Golden 6 No1 Big vs Good V2 AL |
System 3: Tom’s Low Drawdown Betaminic Set of 9 Strategies “2024 LD9”
1 | 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues | |
2 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields | |
3 | BANKER?? | |
4 | e2 | |
5 | OVER 2. | |
6 | Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) | |
7 | TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites | |
8 | UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJ | |
9 | x 4 + |
2024 LD9 System: 50-point bank
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 100 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -10 points monthly average so far / 12-year -32.33 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 114 Betaminic picks per month average costs £58 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £98 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 4: Contend UD (My personal pick of a strategy I think is due a strong run in 2024)
1 | Contend UD |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 3.6 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 36 points after 10 months)
Drawdown: -8 points monthly average so far / 12-year -34.12 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost: 27 Betaminic picks per month average costs £14 per month with the 2,000 pick package, or £23 per month with the 100 pick packages.
System 5: Betaminic’s Low Drawdown “BetaminicLdsys” Set of 4
1 | Colossus 01 Home Dog | |
2 | BANKER??? | |
3 | Contend UD | |
4 | Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields |
Bank: 50-point bank
Bets: Back the selection at current odds close to kick off.
Target Profit: 10 points per month average after 1,000 bets. (Total of about 120 points after 12 months)
Drawdown: -6 points monthly average so far / 12-year -25 points maximum drawdown according to Betamin Builder Aggregator
Exit point: When 50-point bank is gone or when the 1,000-bet mark is reached.
Cost to follow through TippingSports: £42 per month fixed with a 12-month subscription.
Cost to follow directly through Betamin Builder: All 4 strategies between £30-£50 per month. The aggregator suggests 60 picks per month on average which would be £30 GBP per month with the 2,000-pick package. £51 GBP per month with the 100 pick packages.
Betaminic’s ShootingBets service
1 | ShootingBets |
I’m pretty new to this one. My plan is to prep my soft bookie account by making small 10 GBP bets on Banker??? picks or obvious home favourite bets with 1.10 to 1.30 odds, then increase to 100 GBP. Then add in the ShootingBets bets with 100 GBP bets to maximise profit before they limit or close my account. I will try to stick to football, basketball and tennis bets. After each ShootingBets bet, I will place a 100 GBP bet on a related market on a low odds bet to make it seem like I am a mug punter for that event. If you use this service be sure to read this article: https://www.betaminic.com/betting-guide/23-tips-on-how-to-avoid-getting-banned-by-bookies-when-using-shootingbets/
4 Automated Betting Bots – My Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
If you need one of my bot sets. Email me at bettingsystemsguide@gmail.com
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicDraw on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my BetaminicDraw bot set)
6 Betaminic’s tipping account BetaminicLdsys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account)
7 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 IPT In Play Trading Data add-on for Bf Bot Manager – Get all the livescores for all the Betfair in-play football games.
3 ApostasBF betting exchange: My BSG Draw System is available to my ApostasBF referrals for FREE! No subscriptions, no downloads, no VPS, just free automated betting.
4 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
5 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
6 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
7 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.